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Economics Prediction Markets

Economics prediction markets turn the next data release into a tradable number: Fed rate decisions, CPI prints, recession calls and jobs reports. The price is the market’s live read on what the Fed and the data will actually do — often ahead of the consensus forecast. Back your view, or watch where the money sits.

Economics

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?

Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?

Fed rate hike in 2026?

Will GameStop acquire eBay?

US recession by end of 2026?

Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 4.25% at the end of 2026?

Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31?

OpenAI $1t+ IPO before 2027?

Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?

Will Ed Miliband be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026?

Fed emergency rate cut before 2027?

Will OpenAI announce earbuds or headphones in 2026?

AI model scores ≥ 90% on FrontierMath Benchmark before 2027?

Will Uber ask Travis Kalanick back by June 30, 2027?

Will Pat McFadden be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026?

NYSE marketwide circuit breaker before 2027?

Will Goldman Sachs (GS) Q2 investment banking fees be above $2.1B?

Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?

Will Anthropic's market cap be less than $1.25T at market close on IPO day?

Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 5.0% or higher before 2027?

Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?

Will Google have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?

US bank failure by July 31?

Will Morgan Stanley or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in Anthropic's initial public offering?

Will Argentina dollarize by December 31, 2026?

Will Perplexity's valuation hit (HIGH) $20B by July 31?

United Airlines (UAL) Q2 total revenue per available seat mile 19¢-19.5¢?

Will Japan's core-core CPI increase by less than or equal to 1.9% in 2026?

Will Neuralink's valuation hit (HIGH) $75B by July 31?

Will Perplexity's valuation hit (HIGH) $50B by December 31?

Will Newmont (NEM) Q2 total attributable gold production be above 1,200 koz?

Will Perplexity's valuation hit (HIGH) $25B by July 31?

Will NVIDIA be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?

Will Anduril's valuation hit (HIGH) $200B by December 31?

Will Databricks' valuation hit (HIGH) $180B by July 31?

Will Charles Schwab (SCHW) Q2 core net new assets be above $95B?

Will CXMT’s market cap be less than 250 billion yuan at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2026?

Will Epic Games' valuation hit (HIGH) $25B by December 31?

Will GE Vernova (GEV) Q2 orders be above $18B?

Will Stripe's valuation hit (HIGH) $500B by December 31?

Will Aristotle self-certify sports event contracts by December 31, 2026?

Will Brown-Forman be acquired before 2027?

Will Canva's valuation hit (HIGH) $60B by July 31?

Will Lambda's valuation hit (HIGH) $15B by December 31?

Will Verizon (VZ) Q2 total operating revenue be above $34.5B?

Will Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) Q2 Innovation Medicine revenue be above $16.35B?

Will Epic Games' valuation hit (HIGH) $17.5B by July 31?

Will Databricks' valuation hit (HIGH) $300B by December 31?

Will the Fed Cut–Pause–Cut in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)?

Will Epic Games' valuation hit (HIGH) $30B by December 31?

Will T-Mobile (TMUS) Q2 total service revenues be above $19B?

Will Neuralink's valuation hit (HIGH) $52.5B by July 31?

Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by July 31?

Will the Ornn H100 Index be less than $2.00 on July 31, 2026?

Will the Ornn B200 Index be less than $3.00 on July 31, 2026?

Will GE Aerospace (GE) Q2 adjusted revenue be above $11.75B?

Will Canva's valuation hit (HIGH) $100B by December 31?

Will Polymarket mindshare hit 90% by December 31?

Will AT&T (T) Q2 total revenue be above $31.4B?

Will the Ornn H200 Index be less than $2.00 on July 31, 2026?

YES 8%

92% NO

$523 · Polymarket

What are Economics prediction markets?

Economics prediction markets price the next data release before it lands. You can trade Fed rate decisions, CPI and inflation prints, jobs reports, GDP and recession calls — each as a simple yes/no contract that settles on the official number. The price is the market’s live read on what the data and the Fed will actually do, and it often moves ahead of the published consensus.

For macro traders that makes these markets both a hedge and a signal: a Fed-cut contract at 30¢ implies a roughly 30% chance of a cut, updating in real time as speeches, prints and futures move. Because outcomes settle on hard data, resolution is clean and disputes are rare.

Where to trade Economics markets

The deepest economics markets trade on Kalshi and Polymarket. New accounts can compare current sign-up offers on our bonuses page, or see how every platform stacks up in our full reviews. New to this? Start with what a prediction market is.

Economics markets FAQ

What economic events can I trade?

Fed meetings, CPI and PCE inflation, nonfarm payrolls, unemployment, GDP and recession calls are the most liquid.

How is this different from futures?

Event contracts are simple binary yes/no positions priced from $0 to $1, rather than leveraged futures — easier to size and read as probabilities.

Which platform is best for economics?

Kalshi has the broadest macro slate; see our Kalshi review.