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Economics Prediction Markets

Q: What economic events can I trade?

Fed meetings, CPI and PCE inflation, nonfarm payrolls, unemployment, GDP and recession calls are the most liquid.

Q: How is this different from futures?

Event contracts are simple binary yes/no positions priced from $0 to $1, rather than leveraged futures — easier to size and read as probabilities.

Q: Which platform is best for economics?

Kalshi has the broadest macro slate; see our Kalshi review.

Economics prediction markets turn the next data release into a tradable number: Fed rate decisions, CPI prints, recession calls and jobs reports. The price is the market’s live read on what the Fed and the data will actually do — often ahead of the consensus forecast. Back your view, or watch where the money sits.

Economics

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?

Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?

Fed rate hike in 2026?

Will GameStop acquire eBay?

US recession by end of 2026?

Discord IPO before 2027?

Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 4.25% at the end of 2026?

OpenAI $1t+ IPO before 2027?

Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?

Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first?

Will Ed Miliband be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026?

Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?

Will OpenAI announce earbuds or headphones in 2026?

Fed emergency rate cut before 2027?

AI model scores ≥ 90% on FrontierMath Benchmark before 2027?

Will Uber ask Travis Kalanick back by June 30, 2027?

NYSE marketwide circuit breaker before 2027?

Will Pat McFadden be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026?

Will Stripe acquire Paypal in 2026?

Will Goldman Sachs (GS) Q2 investment banking fees be above $2.1B?

Will Neuralink's valuation hit (HIGH) $100B by December 31?

Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31?

Will NVIDIA be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?

Will no one dissent the July Fed decision?

Will Anthropic's market cap be less than $1.25T at market close on IPO day?

Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 5.0% or higher before 2027?

Will Google have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?

Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?

US bank failure by July 31?

Will Oura's market cap be less than $7.5B at market close on IPO day?

Will Morgan Stanley or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in Anthropic's initial public offering?

Will Anduril's valuation hit (HIGH) $200B by December 31?

Will Argentina dollarize by December 31, 2026?

Will ByteDance's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31?

Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?

Will Neuralink's valuation hit (HIGH) $75B by July 31?

Will the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the September Meeting?

Will Perplexity's valuation hit (HIGH) $20B by July 31?

Will Perplexity's valuation hit (HIGH) $50B by December 31?

Will JPMorgan (JPM) close at USD 1 trillion or more market cap by August 31?

United Airlines (UAL) Q2 total revenue per available seat mile 19¢-19.5¢?

Will Japan's core-core CPI increase by less than or equal to 1.9% in 2026?

Will Microsoft (MSFT) Q4 total capital expenditures be above $38B?

Will Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) Q2 revenue (USD) be above $39B?

Will Japan's core CPI increase by less than or equal to 1.9% in 2026?

Will Newmont (NEM) Q2 total attributable gold production be above 1,200 koz?

Will Perplexity's valuation hit (HIGH) $25B by July 31?

Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?

Will Databricks' valuation hit (HIGH) $180B by July 31?

Will Charles Schwab (SCHW) Q2 core net new assets be above $95B?

Will CXMT’s market cap be less than 250 billion yuan at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2026?

Will Epic Games' valuation hit (HIGH) $25B by December 31?

Will the Ornn H100 Index be less than $2.00 on July 31, 2026?

Coca-Cola (KO) Q2 organic revenue (non-GAAP) growth <3.5%?

Will GE Vernova (GEV) Q2 orders be above $18B?

Will Stripe's valuation hit (HIGH) $500B by December 31?

Will Brown-Forman be acquired before 2027?

Will Aristotle self-certify sports event contracts by December 31, 2026?

Coca-Cola (KO) Q2 global unit case volume growth <3.5%?

Will Canva's valuation hit (HIGH) $60B by July 31?

YES 4%

96% NO

$2k · Polymarket

What are Economics prediction markets?

Economics prediction markets price the next data release before it lands. You can trade Fed rate decisions, CPI and inflation prints, jobs reports, GDP and recession calls — each as a simple yes/no contract that settles on the official number. The price is the market’s live read on what the data and the Fed will actually do, and it often moves ahead of the published consensus.

For macro traders that makes these markets both a hedge and a signal: a Fed-cut contract at 30¢ implies a roughly 30% chance of a cut, updating in real time as speeches, prints and futures move. Because outcomes settle on hard data, resolution is clean and disputes are rare.

Where to trade Economics markets

The deepest economics markets trade on Kalshi and Polymarket. New accounts can compare current sign-up offers on our bonuses page, or see how every platform stacks up in our full reviews. New to this? Start with what a prediction market is.

Economics markets FAQ

What economic events can I trade?

Fed meetings, CPI and PCE inflation, nonfarm payrolls, unemployment, GDP and recession calls are the most liquid.

How is this different from futures?

Event contracts are simple binary yes/no positions priced from $0 to $1, rather than leveraged futures — easier to size and read as probabilities.

Which platform is best for economics?

Kalshi has the broadest macro slate; see our Kalshi review.