Learn prediction markets
Plain-English guides to how prediction markets work — what event contracts are, how to read prices as probabilities, where they are legal, and how to choose a platform.
What Is a Prediction Market? A Beginner’s Guide to How Event Trading Works
A plain-English guide to prediction markets: what event contracts are, how prices work as probabilities, and how they differ from sports betting.
7 min read Read → Getting startedHow Do Prediction Markets Work?
Markets match buyers and sellers of yes/no event contracts. Here is the full cycle, from picking a question to settlement.
2 min read Read → Getting startedHow to Buy Your First Prediction Market Contract
Six beginner steps to placing your first trade — from opening a regulated account to using limit orders in thin markets.
2 min read Read → Getting startedHow to Read Yes/No Contracts on Prediction Markets
Yes wins if the event happens, No if it doesn't — but the rules and settlement source decide who actually gets paid.
2 min read Read → Prices & oddsHow Prediction Market Odds Work
In prediction markets the odds are just the price. A 70-cent contract means roughly a 70% chance — no American odds to decode.
2 min read Read → Prices & oddsHow Prediction Market Prices Become Probabilities
Because each contract pays a fixed $1, the price reads straight across as an implied probability. Here is why, and the caveats.
2 min read Read → Prices & oddsWhat Is Liquidity in Prediction Markets?
Liquidity is how easily you can trade without moving the price. It quietly decides both your profit and your risk.
2 min read Read → Prices & oddsHow Prediction Markets Resolve Winning Contracts
Markets settle on written rules and an official source. The headline doesn't pay you — the named source does.
2 min read Read → StrategyCan You Make Money on Prediction Markets?
Yes, but they are risk markets, not passive income. You profit by buying below true probability or selling above fair value.
2 min read Read → StrategyCan You Sell Prediction Market Contracts Before They Expire?
In most markets you can exit before the event ends — if there's a buyer. How early selling works and why liquidity matters.
2 min read Read → StrategyCommon Prediction Market Mistakes Beginners Make
The biggest mistake is buying on opinion instead of price. Here are the usual traps and a habit that fixes most of them.
2 min read Read → StrategyCan Prediction Markets Be Manipulated?
Yes — especially in thin markets or with insider information. How manipulation works and how to protect yourself.
2 min read Read → ComparisonsPrediction Markets vs Sports Betting
They look alike on a game result, but one is an exchange and one is a house. The structural and legal differences explained.
2 min read Read → ComparisonsKalshi vs Polymarket: Which Should You Use?
Kalshi is the US-regulated, dollar-based exchange; Polymarket is the crypto-native, deepest-liquidity one. How to choose.
2 min read Read → ComparisonsPrediction Markets vs Options Trading
Both price the future, but options track an asset while event contracts pay $1 or $0 on a defined outcome.
2 min read Read → ComparisonsPrediction Markets vs Stock Trading
Stocks are open-ended ownership; prediction contracts are a fixed question with an expiry. When each one makes sense.
2 min read Read → ComparisonsPrediction Markets vs Betting Exchanges
Cousins that share peer-to-peer pricing but live in different regulatory worlds. Why the legal label changes everything.
2 min read Read → Legality & taxAre Prediction Markets Legal in the US?
Regulated event-contract exchanges may operate legally, but not every market type is legal everywhere. The current picture.
2 min read Read → Legality & taxPrediction Market Taxes Explained
Assume your profits are taxable, keep clean records, and ask a professional. How event contracts may differ from sportsbook winnings.
2 min read Read → PlatformsApps Like Kalshi and Polymarket: The Best Alternatives (2026)
Blocked in your state, done with crypto, or want a real bonus? Eight strong Kalshi and Polymarket alternatives, ranked.
8 min read Read → PlatformsThe Best Prediction Market Apps for Sports Bettors (2026)
No vig, no house setting your odds, cash-out before the whistle, and legal access in no-sportsbook states. The best sports apps, ranked.
10 min read Read →