Would you bet…
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 4.25% at the end of 2026? Predictions
A YES share pays out if this happens and NO pays out if it doesn’t — so the 20% price is just the market’s implied chance of YES. How YES/NO contracts work →
- Platform
- Polymarket
- Volume
- $422,450 volume
- Resolves
- 9 Dec 2026
- Updated
- 1 week ago
The market prices a 4.25% upper bound at year-end 2026 as a long shot, with 20% backing that outcome. The position has slipped down 5 points, reflecting modest skepticism about such a low rate. At $422k in volume, the contract has enough liquidity to trade but remains thin relative to the policy stakes.
The math: a 4.25% ceiling would imply roughly 425 basis points of cuts from today’s levels, or sustained easing through 2026. The market is pricing in rate cuts, yes—but not that aggressively. The current implied path suggests traders expect the Fed to stop higher, likely closer to 3.5%–3.75%, reflecting uncertainty about inflation persistence and economic conditions eighteen months out. That gap explains why 80% commands the bulk of positioning.
Watch the inflation data and Fed communications for movement. If core PCE stays elevated through 2025, or if growth surprises to the upside, 20% would likely stay depressed. A sharp slowdown or a major disinflationary shock could pull it higher. For now, the price reflects a reasonable baseline: more cuts than the market feared six months ago, but not a rout.
FAQ
What does a 20% price mean?
It is the market-implied probability. A 20% YES price means traders collectively judge the event about 20% likely.
How does this market resolve?
The FED rate is defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal fu
Where can I trade it?
This market is listed on Polymarket. Prediction markets carry real financial risk and may not be available in every state.
What economic events can I trade?
Fed meetings, CPI and PCE inflation, nonfarm payrolls, unemployment, GDP and recession calls are the most liquid.
How is this different from futures?
Event contracts are simple binary yes/no positions priced from $0 to $1, rather than leveraged futures — easier to size and read as probabilities.
Which platform is best for economics?
Kalshi has the broadest macro slate; see our Kalshi review.
What is a prediction market?
A prediction market lets you trade contracts on whether a real-world event will happen. The live price moves with supply and demand and reads as the implied probability. Read more →
How do the odds work?
Every price between 1¢ and 99¢ is the implied chance of YES. A contract settles at $1 if it resolves yes and $0 if it does not. Read more →
Prediction market contracts carry real financial risk and can resolve to zero. 18+.
Before you trade
Read our independent reviews of the platforms behind these markets.