Would you bet…
Will T-Mobile (TMUS) Q2 total service revenues be above $19B? Predictions
A YES share pays out if this happens and NO pays out if it doesn’t — so the 76% price is just the market’s implied chance of YES. How YES/NO contracts work →
- Platform
- Polymarket
- Volume
- $1,224 volume
- Resolves
- 23 Jul 2026
- Updated
- 4 days ago
The market is strongly favored, pricing 76% for Yes and 24% for No on $1k in volume. in recent trading has held. The bar is $19 billion in total service revenue for Q2—a modest hurdle for a carrier of T-Mobile’s scale.
T-Mobile reported $15.7 billion in total service revenues in Q1 2024, meaning a $19 billion Q2 would require roughly 21% sequential growth. That’s steep for a single quarter, though telecom revenue can be volatile with timing of device sales, promotional activity, and subscriber mix. The company has grown service revenue year-over-year consistently, but seasonal patterns matter: Q2 typically does not see the back-to-school or holiday push of other quarters. The market’s confidence suggests traders see Q2 as a stronger period or expect elevated equipment revenues to flow through.
To move the line materially, you’d need either revised guidance from T-Mobile, broader telecom sector shifts, or news about subscriber trends ahead of earnings. The threshold itself is public and fixed; the only variable is execution. 23 July 2026 on Polymarket.
FAQ
What does a 76% price mean?
It is the market-implied probability. A 76% YES price means traders collectively judge the event about 76% likely.
How does this market resolve?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if T-Mobile's total service revenues for the upcoming second fiscal quarter, as reported in its official company earnings materials, is above the listed amount. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The specified metric will be considered as reported in the
Where can I trade it?
This market is listed on Polymarket. Prediction markets carry real financial risk and may not be available in every state.
What economic events can I trade?
Fed meetings, CPI and PCE inflation, nonfarm payrolls, unemployment, GDP and recession calls are the most liquid.
How is this different from futures?
Event contracts are simple binary yes/no positions priced from $0 to $1, rather than leveraged futures — easier to size and read as probabilities.
Which platform is best for economics?
Kalshi has the broadest macro slate; see our Kalshi review.
What is a prediction market?
A prediction market lets you trade contracts on whether a real-world event will happen. The live price moves with supply and demand and reads as the implied probability. Read more →
How do the odds work?
Every price between 1¢ and 99¢ is the implied chance of YES. A contract settles at $1 if it resolves yes and $0 if it does not. Read more →
Prediction market contracts carry real financial risk and can resolve to zero. 18+.
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