Would you bet…
Will GameStop acquire eBay? Predictions
A YES share pays out if this happens and NO pays out if it doesn’t — so the 13% price is just the market’s implied chance of YES. How YES/NO contracts work →
- Platform
- Polymarket
- Volume
- $1,993,203 volume
- Resolves
- 31 Dec 2026
- Updated
- 1 minute ago
GameStop acquiring eBay sits at 13%, a a long shot wager on a deal that would unite two struggling retail fixtures. The market up 2 points has climbed slightly this week, but volume at $1.99M suggests modest conviction either way. The price reflects the plain math: GameStop, a meme-stock darling still burning cash, would need to pull off one of the largest retail acquisitions in recent memory. eBay, though more profitable, operates a fundamentally different business—a marketplace platform versus a brick-and-mortar seller of gaming hardware.
For 13% to move meaningfully higher, you’d need either executive commentary hinting at M&A, a major strategic shift at GameStop, or material proof the companies see synergies worth pursuing. The reverse—a public statement ruling out deals—could push 87% higher. Neither seems imminent. Management at both firms has not signaled acquisition interest, and GameStop’s capital constraints remain a hard constraint on ambition.
The market 31 December 2026 by December 31, 2026, on Polymarket. At 13%, this prices acquisition as possible but unlikely. That’s probably fair.
FAQ
What does a 13% price mean?
It is the market-implied probability. A 13% YES price means traders collectively judge the event about 13% likely.
How does this market resolve?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is officially announced that eBay will be, has been, or is being acquired by or merged with GameStop, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Mergers or acquisitions involving eBay or its parent company, eBay Inc., and
Where can I trade it?
This market is listed on Polymarket. Prediction markets carry real financial risk and may not be available in every state.
What economic events can I trade?
Fed meetings, CPI and PCE inflation, nonfarm payrolls, unemployment, GDP and recession calls are the most liquid.
How is this different from futures?
Event contracts are simple binary yes/no positions priced from $0 to $1, rather than leveraged futures — easier to size and read as probabilities.
Which platform is best for economics?
Kalshi has the broadest macro slate; see our Kalshi review.
What is a prediction market?
A prediction market lets you trade contracts on whether a real-world event will happen. The live price moves with supply and demand and reads as the implied probability. Read more →
How do the odds work?
Every price between 1¢ and 99¢ is the implied chance of YES. A contract settles at $1 if it resolves yes and $0 if it does not. Read more →
Prediction market contracts carry real financial risk and can resolve to zero. 18+.
Before you trade
Read our independent reviews of the platforms behind these markets.