Would you bet…
Will Newmont (NEM) Q2 total attributable gold production be above 1,200 koz? Predictions
A YES share pays out if this happens and NO pays out if it doesn’t — so the 81% price is just the market’s implied chance of YES. How YES/NO contracts work →
- Platform
- Polymarket
- Volume
- $3,264 volume
- Resolves
- 23 Jul 2026
- Updated
- 3 hours ago
81% has settled as strongly favored, reflecting confidence that Newmont will clear 1,200 koz of attributable gold production in Q2. The market has seen in recent trading, though $3k suggests limited conviction either way.
Newmont is the world’s largest gold producer by volume. Its recent quarterly runs have typically landed in the 1.1–1.3 million koz range, making 1,200 koz a practical midpoint rather than a stress case. The threshold is neither a floor nor a stretch—it is a slightly-above-average quarter. Q2 seasonality and mine throughput rates matter more than commodity price here; this resolves on reported ounces, not value.
Movement will hinge on any pre-earnings guidance revisions, mine operating updates, or processing disruptions at major sites. A weather event, unplanned maintenance, or resource constraints could knock production below the line. Conversely, operational efficiency gains or higher-than-expected yields would push it above. The current price reflects a modest edge to the upside, but with low trading volume, fresh data could shift the balance quickly.
FAQ
What does a 81% price mean?
It is the market-implied probability. A 81% YES price means traders collectively judge the event about 81% likely.
How does this market resolve?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Newmont's total attributable gold production for the upcoming second fiscal quarter, as reported in its official company earnings materials, is above the listed amount. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The specified metric will be considered as repor
Where can I trade it?
This market is listed on Polymarket. Prediction markets carry real financial risk and may not be available in every state.
What economic events can I trade?
Fed meetings, CPI and PCE inflation, nonfarm payrolls, unemployment, GDP and recession calls are the most liquid.
How is this different from futures?
Event contracts are simple binary yes/no positions priced from $0 to $1, rather than leveraged futures — easier to size and read as probabilities.
Which platform is best for economics?
Kalshi has the broadest macro slate; see our Kalshi review.
What is a prediction market?
A prediction market lets you trade contracts on whether a real-world event will happen. The live price moves with supply and demand and reads as the implied probability. Read more →
How do the odds work?
Every price between 1¢ and 99¢ is the implied chance of YES. A contract settles at $1 if it resolves yes and $0 if it does not. Read more →
Prediction market contracts carry real financial risk and can resolve to zero. 18+.
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