Would you bet…
Will Anduril’s valuation hit (HIGH) $200B by December 31? Predictions
A YES share pays out if this happens and NO pays out if it doesn’t — so the 8% price is just the market’s implied chance of YES. How YES/NO contracts work →
- Platform
- Polymarket
- Volume
- $3,068 volume
- Resolves
- 1 Jan 2027
- Updated
- 6 days ago
Anduril’s path to a $200B valuation is a long shot, priced at 8% on Polymarket. The market has in recent trading, with $3k in recent trading—modest activity befitting long odds. To hit $200B by year-end 2026, the defense-tech company would need to more than double its last known private valuation. That’s a compressed timeline in a sector where momentum matters but capital deployment takes time.
Resolution hinges on Nasdaq Private Market’s NPM Price feed, updated daily on trading days. The criteria are clean: any NPM quote at $200B or above between now and December 31, 2026, settles Yes. The burden is steep. Anduril would need either a major funding round at a higher mark, genuine proof of scaled revenue, or a shift in defense spending that lifts the entire sector. Market sentiment has held that such a move is unlikely within the window.
At 8%, traders are pricing in skepticism. Whether that’s justified depends on Anduril’s ability to convert its early-stage momentum into hard business metrics—and on whether private-market valuations in defense tech experience the kind of compression we’ve seen elsewhere.
FAQ
What does a 8% price mean?
It is the market-implied probability. A 8% YES price means traders collectively judge the event about 8% likely.
How does this market resolve?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anduril's private market valuation, as measured by the NPM Price reported by Nasdaq Private Market, LLC (NPM) for any date between market creation and December 31, 2026, reaches or exceeds the listed amount. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". NPM Price
Where can I trade it?
This market is listed on Polymarket. Prediction markets carry real financial risk and may not be available in every state.
What economic events can I trade?
Fed meetings, CPI and PCE inflation, nonfarm payrolls, unemployment, GDP and recession calls are the most liquid.
How is this different from futures?
Event contracts are simple binary yes/no positions priced from $0 to $1, rather than leveraged futures — easier to size and read as probabilities.
Which platform is best for economics?
Kalshi has the broadest macro slate; see our Kalshi review.
What is a prediction market?
A prediction market lets you trade contracts on whether a real-world event will happen. The live price moves with supply and demand and reads as the implied probability. Read more →
How do the odds work?
Every price between 1¢ and 99¢ is the implied chance of YES. A contract settles at $1 if it resolves yes and $0 if it does not. Read more →
Prediction market contracts carry real financial risk and can resolve to zero. 18+.
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