Would you bet…
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Predictions
A YES share pays out if this happens and NO pays out if it doesn’t — so the 78% price is just the market’s implied chance of YES. How YES/NO contracts work →
- Platform
- Polymarket
- Volume
- $5,908,083 volume
- Resolves
- 31 Dec 2026
- Updated
- 48 seconds ago
The market is strongly favored, with 78% pricing in zero Fed rate cuts across all of 2026. That’s down 4 points over the past week, a shift that reflects rising expectations for sticky inflation and potentially higher-for-longer policy rates. At $5.91M in volume, traders have plenty of liquidity to express conviction either way.
The pricing hinges on two unknowns: inflation trajectory through mid-2026, and the Fed’s tolerance for holding rates elevated. The resolution rule counts any 25-basis-point reduction as one cut, so even a single emergency cut or scheduled reduction would flip this market decisively toward 22%. Payroll data, PCE prints, and any recession signal would be the key movers. For now, the market is betting the Fed stays pat.
78% has slipped as markets price durability in the current rate regime, but the bar for one cut across twelve months is low enough that the price should be read as a near-call, not a lock.
FAQ
What does a 78% price mean?
It is the market-implied probability. A 78% YES price means traders collectively judge the event about 78% likely.
How does this market resolve?
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting). Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open un
Where can I trade it?
This market is listed on Polymarket. Prediction markets carry real financial risk and may not be available in every state.
What economic events can I trade?
Fed meetings, CPI and PCE inflation, nonfarm payrolls, unemployment, GDP and recession calls are the most liquid.
How is this different from futures?
Event contracts are simple binary yes/no positions priced from $0 to $1, rather than leveraged futures — easier to size and read as probabilities.
Which platform is best for economics?
Kalshi has the broadest macro slate; see our Kalshi review.
What is a prediction market?
A prediction market lets you trade contracts on whether a real-world event will happen. The live price moves with supply and demand and reads as the implied probability. Read more →
How do the odds work?
Every price between 1¢ and 99¢ is the implied chance of YES. A contract settles at $1 if it resolves yes and $0 if it does not. Read more →
Prediction market contracts carry real financial risk and can resolve to zero. 18+.
Before you trade
Read our independent reviews of the platforms behind these markets.