Would you bet…
United Airlines (UAL) Q2 total revenue per available seat mile 19¢-19.5¢? Predictions
A YES share pays out if this happens and NO pays out if it doesn’t — so the 50% price is just the market’s implied chance of YES. How YES/NO contracts work →
- Platform
- Polymarket
- Volume
- $4,746 volume
- Resolves
- 15 Jul 2026
- Updated
- 1 week ago
United Airlines is a coin flip to hit 19–19.5¢ in total revenue per available seat mile for Q2, with 50% of the market currently pricing in that outcome. in recent trading The bet hinges on a narrow band: a single cent spans the entire range, meaning modest swings in either fuel costs, capacity deployment, or yield will matter.
TRASM is the airline industry’s core profitability metric—total revenue divided by seat-miles flown. United’s ability to land in this range depends on three moving parts: whether demand holds through spring travel season, how aggressively the carrier deploys aircraft, and whether fares remain sticky enough to offset any volume softness. Earnings typically arrive weeks after quarter-end; the market settles on 15 July 2026 and sources figures from Polymarket.
The 50% side (has held recently) is betting United either expands capacity faster than revenue grows—pushing TRASM lower—or sees yield compression. Watch for commentary on summer booking pace and any capacity guidance shifts. At $5k in volume, this remains a thin market; new guidance or competitor reports could reprices it fast.
FAQ
What does a 50% price mean?
It is the market-implied probability. A 50% YES price means traders collectively judge the event about 50% likely.
How does this market resolve?
This market will resolve according to United Airlines' total revenue per available seat mile (TRASM), reported in cents, for the upcoming second fiscal quarter, as reported in its official company earnings materials. The specified metric will be considered as reported in the company's official earn
Where can I trade it?
This market is listed on Polymarket. Prediction markets carry real financial risk and may not be available in every state.
What economic events can I trade?
Fed meetings, CPI and PCE inflation, nonfarm payrolls, unemployment, GDP and recession calls are the most liquid.
How is this different from futures?
Event contracts are simple binary yes/no positions priced from $0 to $1, rather than leveraged futures — easier to size and read as probabilities.
Which platform is best for economics?
Kalshi has the broadest macro slate; see our Kalshi review.
What is a prediction market?
A prediction market lets you trade contracts on whether a real-world event will happen. The live price moves with supply and demand and reads as the implied probability. Read more →
How do the odds work?
Every price between 1¢ and 99¢ is the implied chance of YES. A contract settles at $1 if it resolves yes and $0 if it does not. Read more →
Prediction market contracts carry real financial risk and can resolve to zero. 18+.
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