Would you bet…
Will Japan’s core-core CPI increase by less than or equal to 1.9% in 2026? Predictions
A YES share pays out if this happens and NO pays out if it doesn’t — so the 15% price is just the market’s implied chance of YES. How YES/NO contracts work →
- Platform
- Polymarket
- Volume
- $4,251 volume
- Resolves
- 12 Feb 2027
- Updated
- 7 days ago
The market prices this a long shot, with 15% reflecting deep skepticism that Japan’s core-core inflation will stay at or below 1.9% through 2026. 85% has slipped down 23 points, suggesting traders are growing more confident inflation will exceed that threshold. $4k in trading volume leaves room for repricing if new data arrives.
Japan’s core-core CPI—stripping out both fresh food and energy—has been the BoJ’s preferred gauge of underlying price pressure. The 1.9% threshold is modest by global standards but meaningful for a country with decades of deflationary history. The key inputs: wage growth persistence, import costs from yen weakness, and whether service-sector inflation sticks. If wage negotiations stay firm or the yen stays soft into 2026, the path above 1.9% widens.
Resolution hinges on the SBJ’s annual report for 2026, releasing the year-on-year change. The current price suggests markets expect Japan will either overshoot 1.9% or come in right around it—not comfortably below. Watch for BoJ policy signals and spring wage data; either could shift conviction in either direction.
FAQ
What does a 15% price mean?
It is the market-implied probability. A 15% YES price means traders collectively judge the event about 15% likely.
How does this market resolve?
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Japanese Consumer Price Index excluding fresh food and energy (All items less fresh food and energy, change from the previous year (%)) between 2025 and 2026 according to the Consumer Price Index Annual Report by the Statistics Bureau of Japan
Where can I trade it?
This market is listed on Polymarket. Prediction markets carry real financial risk and may not be available in every state.
What economic events can I trade?
Fed meetings, CPI and PCE inflation, nonfarm payrolls, unemployment, GDP and recession calls are the most liquid.
How is this different from futures?
Event contracts are simple binary yes/no positions priced from $0 to $1, rather than leveraged futures — easier to size and read as probabilities.
Which platform is best for economics?
Kalshi has the broadest macro slate; see our Kalshi review.
What is a prediction market?
A prediction market lets you trade contracts on whether a real-world event will happen. The live price moves with supply and demand and reads as the implied probability. Read more →
How do the odds work?
Every price between 1¢ and 99¢ is the implied chance of YES. A contract settles at $1 if it resolves yes and $0 if it does not. Read more →
Prediction market contracts carry real financial risk and can resolve to zero. 18+.
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