Would you bet…
Will Databricks’ valuation hit (HIGH) $300B by December 31? Predictions
A YES share pays out if this happens and NO pays out if it doesn’t — so the 10% price is just the market’s implied chance of YES. How YES/NO contracts work →
- Platform
- Polymarket
- Volume
- $1,530 volume
- Resolves
- 1 Jan 2027
- Updated
- 5 days ago
10% odds on a $300 billion Databricks valuation by year-end 2026 mark this as a long shot. The market is pricing in a roughly tenfold move from the company’s last known private valuation—a threshold that would require either a blockbuster funding round at a radically higher price, a shift in the broader AI-infrastructure market, or both. $2k in trading suggests limited conviction either way.
What moves this market will be Nasdaq Private Market price updates, published on trading days at 1:00 PM ET the following day. Any new funding announcement, secondary transaction, or NPM repricing materially above current levels would be the catalyst. For now, the odds reflect skepticism that Databricks reaches unicorn-to-megacorn velocity in the next two years, even as enterprise AI adoption accelerates.
This is a live market; the price is a read, not a forecast. Watch the NPM data feed and funding announcements closely.
FAQ
What does a 10% price mean?
It is the market-implied probability. A 10% YES price means traders collectively judge the event about 10% likely.
How does this market resolve?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Databricks' private market valuation, as measured by the NPM Price reported by Nasdaq Private Market, LLC (NPM) for any date between market creation and December 31, 2026, reaches or exceeds the listed amount. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". NPM Pri
Where can I trade it?
This market is listed on Polymarket. Prediction markets carry real financial risk and may not be available in every state.
What economic events can I trade?
Fed meetings, CPI and PCE inflation, nonfarm payrolls, unemployment, GDP and recession calls are the most liquid.
How is this different from futures?
Event contracts are simple binary yes/no positions priced from $0 to $1, rather than leveraged futures — easier to size and read as probabilities.
Which platform is best for economics?
Kalshi has the broadest macro slate; see our Kalshi review.
What is a prediction market?
A prediction market lets you trade contracts on whether a real-world event will happen. The live price moves with supply and demand and reads as the implied probability. Read more →
How do the odds work?
Every price between 1¢ and 99¢ is the implied chance of YES. A contract settles at $1 if it resolves yes and $0 if it does not. Read more →
Prediction market contracts carry real financial risk and can resolve to zero. 18+.
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