Would you bet…
NYSE marketwide circuit breaker before 2027? Predictions
A YES share pays out if this happens and NO pays out if it doesn’t — so the 21% price is just the market’s implied chance of YES. How YES/NO contracts work →
- Platform
- Polymarket
- Volume
- $69,350 volume
- Resolves
- 31 Dec 2026
- Updated
- 1 week ago
A marketwide circuit breaker on the NYSE is a long shot, priced at 21%, with 79% betting against it. The market has up 2 points over the past week and has climbed modestly, trading $69k in volume.
Circuit breakers kick in when the S&P 500 drops 7%, 13%, or 20% from the previous close—thresholds designed to let markets catch their breath during severe selloffs. The window here is tight: thirteen months from early November 2025 through end of 2026. A single bad day, or a cascade of losses stretching over a few weeks, would do it. The question is whether market volatility over that span will be extreme enough to touch those levels.
The pricing reflects real skepticism that such a decline will occur. Holders of 21% are betting on recession, geopolitical shock, or some other catalyst large enough to crater equities hard and fast. Movement this week suggests modest shifting interest, but volume remains modest. As with any tail-risk market, the price is less a forecast than a snapshot of how many traders think the scenario is worth a small bet.
FAQ
What does a 21% price mean?
It is the market-implied probability. A 21% YES price means traders collectively judge the event about 21% likely.
How does this market resolve?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a marketwide circuit breaker is triggered on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) at any time between November 7, 2025, and December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A marketwide circuit breaker is defined as a trading halt that is initiated
Where can I trade it?
This market is listed on Polymarket. Prediction markets carry real financial risk and may not be available in every state.
What economic events can I trade?
Fed meetings, CPI and PCE inflation, nonfarm payrolls, unemployment, GDP and recession calls are the most liquid.
How is this different from futures?
Event contracts are simple binary yes/no positions priced from $0 to $1, rather than leveraged futures — easier to size and read as probabilities.
Which platform is best for economics?
Kalshi has the broadest macro slate; see our Kalshi review.
What is a prediction market?
A prediction market lets you trade contracts on whether a real-world event will happen. The live price moves with supply and demand and reads as the implied probability. Read more →
How do the odds work?
Every price between 1¢ and 99¢ is the implied chance of YES. A contract settles at $1 if it resolves yes and $0 if it does not. Read more →
Prediction market contracts carry real financial risk and can resolve to zero. 18+.
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Read our independent reviews of the platforms behind these markets.