Would you bet…
Will Charles Schwab (SCHW) Q2 core net new assets be above $95B? Predictions
A YES share pays out if this happens and NO pays out if it doesn’t — so the 70% price is just the market’s implied chance of YES. How YES/NO contracts work →
- Platform
- Polymarket
- Volume
- $2,920 volume
- Resolves
- 17 Jul 2026
- Updated
- 3 days ago
70% currently prices this as the favorite, reflecting confidence that Schwab will clear $95 billion in core net new assets for Q2. $3k in trading volume suggests modest liquidity. in recent trading has held, leaving the question of whether that momentum reflects fresh conviction or merely thin-market noise.
The threshold itself sits near Schwab’s recent run rate. In Q1 2024, the firm reported $80.5 billion in core net new assets; in Q4 2023, $84.9 billion. A jump to $95 billion would represent a material acceleration—roughly 12% above Q1’s pace, or 40% above Schwab’s trailing twelve-month median. That’s plausible during strong equity markets and high client engagement, but hardly a lock. Market volatility, competitive pressure from rivals, and seasonal flows all move the needle.
What shifts this further: earnings-season commentary on client acquisition costs and asset flows in real time; broader tape action that influences advisory inflows; and any guidance Schwab offers on its own expectations. The 70% price reflects a reasonable bet on a strong quarter, but $95 billion remains an above-trend target. Watch for Q2 market conditions and Schwab’s disclosed early inflows as April turns to May.
FAQ
What does a 70% price mean?
It is the market-implied probability. A 70% YES price means traders collectively judge the event about 70% likely.
How does this market resolve?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Charles Schwab's core net new assets for the upcoming second fiscal quarter, as reported in its official company earnings materials, is above the listed amount. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The specified metric will be considered as reported in t
Where can I trade it?
This market is listed on Polymarket. Prediction markets carry real financial risk and may not be available in every state.
What economic events can I trade?
Fed meetings, CPI and PCE inflation, nonfarm payrolls, unemployment, GDP and recession calls are the most liquid.
How is this different from futures?
Event contracts are simple binary yes/no positions priced from $0 to $1, rather than leveraged futures — easier to size and read as probabilities.
Which platform is best for economics?
Kalshi has the broadest macro slate; see our Kalshi review.
What is a prediction market?
A prediction market lets you trade contracts on whether a real-world event will happen. The live price moves with supply and demand and reads as the implied probability. Read more →
How do the odds work?
Every price between 1¢ and 99¢ is the implied chance of YES. A contract settles at $1 if it resolves yes and $0 if it does not. Read more →
Prediction market contracts carry real financial risk and can resolve to zero. 18+.
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