Would you bet…
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting? Predictions
A YES share pays out if this happens and NO pays out if it doesn’t — so the 17% price is just the market’s implied chance of YES. How YES/NO contracts work →
- Platform
- Polymarket
- Volume
- $14,915 volume
- Resolves
- 28 Oct 2026
- Updated
- 1 week ago
The market prices a 25-basis-point hike after October 2026’s FOMC meeting at 17%, marking it a long shot. That’s down 8 points has slipped this week, suggesting traders are pulling back on near-term tightening odds. With $15k in volume, liquidity is thin, so moves can feel outsized.
The gap between 17% and 83% reflects genuine uncertainty about the Fed’s path sixteen months out. Economic data between now and then—inflation trajectories, labor-market weakness, financial conditions—will reshape expectations. A significant deterioration in growth or price pressures would support a hike; persistently soft inflation or recession signals would push the contract lower still.
Right now, the market is pricing in either a hold or a smaller move. Watch the Fed’s 2026 dot plot and PCE trends closely. This market 28 October 2026 on Polymarket, and at current levels it’s pricing caution over aggression.
FAQ
What does a 17% price mean?
It is the market-implied probability. A 17% YES price means traders collectively judge the event about 17% likely.
How does this market resolve?
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target
Where can I trade it?
This market is listed on Polymarket. Prediction markets carry real financial risk and may not be available in every state.
What economic events can I trade?
Fed meetings, CPI and PCE inflation, nonfarm payrolls, unemployment, GDP and recession calls are the most liquid.
How is this different from futures?
Event contracts are simple binary yes/no positions priced from $0 to $1, rather than leveraged futures — easier to size and read as probabilities.
Which platform is best for economics?
Kalshi has the broadest macro slate; see our Kalshi review.
What is a prediction market?
A prediction market lets you trade contracts on whether a real-world event will happen. The live price moves with supply and demand and reads as the implied probability. Read more →
How do the odds work?
Every price between 1¢ and 99¢ is the implied chance of YES. A contract settles at $1 if it resolves yes and $0 if it does not. Read more →
Prediction market contracts carry real financial risk and can resolve to zero. 18+.
Before you trade
Read our independent reviews of the platforms behind these markets.