Would you bet…
Xi Jinping out before 2027? Predictions
A YES share pays out if this happens and NO pays out if it doesn’t — so the 6% price is just the market’s implied chance of YES. How YES/NO contracts work →
- Platform
- Polymarket
- Volume
- $11,193,975 volume
- Resolves
- 31 Dec 2026
- Updated
- 5 hours ago
Xi Jinping’s odds of losing power before the end of 2026 sit at 6%, a a long shot bet against one of the world’s most entrenched leaders. The price has held steady barely a point either way, reflecting the thin likelihood of a sudden removal within an 18-month window. With $11.19M in volume across Polymarket, traders are pricing in what geopolitical analysts generally agree: barring a severe health crisis or internal party coup—neither historically common in modern China—Xi remains secure through 2026.
What would shift this market? A dramatic breakdown in party succession mechanics, Xi’s sudden incapacity, or a factional power struggle visible enough to move markets would all be prerequisites. Short of that, the price reflects the structural reality that Xi has consolidated control over the military, security apparatus, and party machinery in ways that make his removal before December 2026 highly speculative.
This 31 December 2026 on Polymarket. The flat movement suggests traders view the question as largely settled; the price itself—not the trend—is the story.
FAQ
What does a 6% price mean?
It is the market-implied probability. A 6% YES price means traders collectively judge the event about 6% likely.
How does this market resolve?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China's General Secretary of the Communist Party, Xi Jinping, is removed from power for any length of time between July 3, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". CCP General Secretary Xi Jinping will be considered
Where can I trade it?
This market is listed on Polymarket. Prediction markets carry real financial risk and may not be available in every state.
What world markets can I trade?
Foreign elections, conflicts and ceasefires, leadership changes, sanctions and major treaties.
Are these reliable forecasts?
They reflect real money at stake, which tends to make them sharper than punditry — but they’re probabilities, not certainties.
Where can I trade world events?
Polymarket has the deepest global markets and Kalshi covers many too — see our reviews.
What is a prediction market?
A prediction market lets you trade contracts on whether a real-world event will happen. The live price moves with supply and demand and reads as the implied probability. Read more →
How do the odds work?
Every price between 1¢ and 99¢ is the implied chance of YES. A contract settles at $1 if it resolves yes and $0 if it does not. Read more →
Prediction market contracts carry real financial risk and can resolve to zero. 18+.
Before you trade
Read our independent reviews of the platforms behind these markets.