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Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Predictions
A YES share pays out if this happens and NO pays out if it doesn’t — so the 16% price is just the market’s implied chance of YES. How YES/NO contracts work →
- Platform
- Polymarket
- Volume
- $40,185,334 volume
- Resolves
- 31 Dec 2026
- Updated
- 1 minute ago
The market prices a U.S. invasion of Iran before 2027 at 16%, a a long shot bet. The contract has held steady barely a point either way, signaling modest conviction that the risk remains real but contained. $40.19M in volume suggests serious money is watching, even if most traders treat this as unlikely.
That price reflects the baseline: no active invasion campaign is underway, diplomatic channels remain open in fits and starts, and the direct costs of a major ground offensive against a nation of 89 million people are staggering. The resolution criteria require U.S. forces to commence a military offensive “intended to establish control over any portion of Iran”—a high bar, excluding strikes on nuclear sites or proxy forces unless they’re part of a broader territorial campaign.
What would move this higher? Escalating conflict with Iran’s militias or a major terrorist attack traced to Tehran; destabilization in Iraq or the Gulf that demands ground intervention; or a regional war that pulls in allied forces. What keeps it low: the political and military friction of such an operation, no current casus belli, and the preference for air campaigns or covert action shown in past U.S. posture. This price is a live read on contingency risk, not a forecast of intent. 31 December 2026 on Polymarket.
FAQ
What does a 16% price mean?
It is the market-implied probability. A 16% YES price means traders collectively judge the event about 16% likely.
How does this market resolve?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the Unite
Where can I trade it?
This market is listed on Polymarket. Prediction markets carry real financial risk and may not be available in every state.
What world markets can I trade?
Foreign elections, conflicts and ceasefires, leadership changes, sanctions and major treaties.
Are these reliable forecasts?
They reflect real money at stake, which tends to make them sharper than punditry — but they’re probabilities, not certainties.
Where can I trade world events?
Polymarket has the deepest global markets and Kalshi covers many too — see our reviews.
What is a prediction market?
A prediction market lets you trade contracts on whether a real-world event will happen. The live price moves with supply and demand and reads as the implied probability. Read more →
How do the odds work?
Every price between 1¢ and 99¢ is the implied chance of YES. A contract settles at $1 if it resolves yes and $0 if it does not. Read more →
Prediction market contracts carry real financial risk and can resolve to zero. 18+.
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