Would you bet…
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? Predictions
A YES share pays out if this happens and NO pays out if it doesn’t — so the 9% price is just the market’s implied chance of YES. How YES/NO contracts work →
- Platform
- Polymarket
- Volume
- $16,853,195 volume
- Resolves
- 31 Dec 2026
- Updated
- 1 minute ago
The market prices Putin’s exit from the Russian presidency by end-2026 at 9%, a a long shot by most standards. The contract down 3 points this week, a modest shift in a market $16.85M in total volume on Polymarket. The price itself is the market’s honest statement: traders see very little daylight for a change in Russia’s formal power structure within the next two years.
What would move this? A credible report of serious illness, a genuine coup attempt, or major fractures within the security apparatus—the kinds of tail events that don’t trade on rumor. The resolution criteria are permissive (any announcement of resignation or removal counts), yet the price remains 91%-heavy. That suggests traders view both the event’s probability and the signal noise as low. Announced resignations, genuine coups, and sudden incapacity are distinct scenarios, none of which shows clear momentum as of now.
At 9%, this is priced as a genuine long shot rather than a dead certainty either way. The market is liquid enough to trade; whether it moves depends on facts on the ground in Moscow, not sentiment drift.
FAQ
What does a 9% price mean?
It is the market-implied probability. A 9% YES price means traders collectively judge the event about 9% likely.
How does this market resolve?
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Vladimir Putin ceases to be President of Russia for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Vladimir Putin's resignation/removal before this market's end date will im
Where can I trade it?
This market is listed on Polymarket. Prediction markets carry real financial risk and may not be available in every state.
What world markets can I trade?
Foreign elections, conflicts and ceasefires, leadership changes, sanctions and major treaties.
Are these reliable forecasts?
They reflect real money at stake, which tends to make them sharper than punditry — but they’re probabilities, not certainties.
Where can I trade world events?
Polymarket has the deepest global markets and Kalshi covers many too — see our reviews.
What is a prediction market?
A prediction market lets you trade contracts on whether a real-world event will happen. The live price moves with supply and demand and reads as the implied probability. Read more →
How do the odds work?
Every price between 1¢ and 99¢ is the implied chance of YES. A contract settles at $1 if it resolves yes and $0 if it does not. Read more →
Prediction market contracts carry real financial risk and can resolve to zero. 18+.
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