How Prediction Market Odds Work
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In a prediction market the “odds” are just the price. A Yes contract trading at 70¢ is the market saying the event is roughly 70% likely — no need to decode +150 or −200 like a sportsbook.
The price is the probability
Because a winning contract pays exactly $1, the price reads straight across as an implied probability. A Yes at 64¢ implies about a 64% chance; the matching No would sit near 36¢, before spreads and fees. That is far more intuitive for beginners than converting American odds.
“Will Candidate X win?” Yes costs 64¢ and pays $1 if correct, so your maximum gross gain is 36¢ per contract. If X loses, you lose the 64¢ you paid. The price already tells you the market thinks it is about a 64% shot.
Don’t treat the price as truth
A price is only the market’s current view, not a verified forecast. Thin liquidity, hype, breaking news, insider activity and quirky settlement rules can all push a price away from the “true” odds. The deeper and more actively traded a market is, the more you can trust its number — see our guide to liquidity for why that matters.
How it compares to sportsbook odds
Sportsbooks quote lines like +150 or −120 and bake a margin into both sides. Prediction markets quote a clean cents price set by other traders, with fees charged separately. If you want the full breakdown, read prediction markets vs sports betting. You can watch live prices move in real time in the markets hub.