Would you bet…
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Predictions
A YES share pays out if this happens and NO pays out if it doesn’t — so the 9% price is just the market’s implied chance of YES. How YES/NO contracts work →
- Platform
- Polymarket
- Volume
- $21,523,996 volume
- Resolves
- 31 Dec 2026
- Updated
- 3 minutes ago
The market prices regime change in Iran as a long shot, with 9% bid. That valuation has in recent trading, reflecting the structural durability of the Islamic Republic’s security apparatus despite chronic economic strain and periodic protest. $21.52M in trading volume suggests real money is testing both sides, though conviction remains modest.
The resolution criteria demand dissolution or replacement of core institutions—the Supreme Leader’s office, Guardian Council, IRGC command structure—by end of 2026. That’s a high bar. Iran’s ruling hierarchy has survived multiple regional wars, sanctions cycles, and domestic unrest since 1979. Sudden collapse typically requires either military defeat of catastrophic scale or a military coup; neither appears imminent. Gradual institutional erosion doesn’t meet the threshold.
What would move this higher: credible intelligence of serious fissures within the IRGC or clerical elite, or a sharp escalation in regional conflict that destabilizes command authority. What keeps it low: the regime’s demonstrated capacity to suppress opposition, control coercive forces, and adapt economically. The price reflects rational skepticism about short-term overthrow, though not complacency about long-term stability.
FAQ
What does a 9% price mean?
It is the market-implied probability. A 9% YES price means traders collectively judge the event about 9% likely.
How does this market resolve?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structu
Where can I trade it?
This market is listed on Polymarket. Prediction markets carry real financial risk and may not be available in every state.
What world markets can I trade?
Foreign elections, conflicts and ceasefires, leadership changes, sanctions and major treaties.
Are these reliable forecasts?
They reflect real money at stake, which tends to make them sharper than punditry — but they’re probabilities, not certainties.
Where can I trade world events?
Polymarket has the deepest global markets and Kalshi covers many too — see our reviews.
What is a prediction market?
A prediction market lets you trade contracts on whether a real-world event will happen. The live price moves with supply and demand and reads as the implied probability. Read more →
How do the odds work?
Every price between 1¢ and 99¢ is the implied chance of YES. A contract settles at $1 if it resolves yes and $0 if it does not. Read more →
Prediction market contracts carry real financial risk and can resolve to zero. 18+.
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