Would you bet…
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? Predictions
A YES share pays out if this happens and NO pays out if it doesn’t — so the 10% price is just the market’s implied chance of YES. How YES/NO contracts work →
- Platform
- Polymarket
- Volume
- $16,142,599 volume
- Resolves
- 31 Dec 2026
- Updated
- 3 days ago
The market prices Putin’s departure from the presidency by year-end 2026 at 10%, a a long shot that has climbed up 4 points. That modest upward drift reflects the baseline risk of sudden political upheaval in any authoritarian state, but the price also embeds a strong consensus view: barring external shock, Putin remains in office through the window.
The resolution criteria are plain—any cessation of the presidency, announced or actual, settles to Yes. But Russia’s political system offers few visible off-ramps. Putin controls the security apparatus, the legislature, and the media ecosystem. An internal coup, health crisis, or military collapse would be the main catalysts. None is priced as imminent. $16.14M in volume suggests real money at work, not speculation.
To move this price materially higher, traders would need either concrete evidence of instability within the Kremlin or a significant shift in the war’s trajectory that threatens regime survival. Absent that, 90% reflects the structural durability of Putin’s hold. The price is a live read on probability, not a prediction.
FAQ
What does a 10% price mean?
It is the market-implied probability. A 10% YES price means traders collectively judge the event about 10% likely.
How does this market resolve?
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Vladimir Putin ceases to be President of Russia for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Vladimir Putin's resignation/removal before this market's end date will im
Where can I trade it?
This market is listed on Polymarket. Prediction markets carry real financial risk and may not be available in every state.
What world markets can I trade?
Foreign elections, conflicts and ceasefires, leadership changes, sanctions and major treaties.
Are these reliable forecasts?
They reflect real money at stake, which tends to make them sharper than punditry — but they’re probabilities, not certainties.
Where can I trade world events?
Polymarket has the deepest global markets and Kalshi covers many too — see our reviews.
What is a prediction market?
A prediction market lets you trade contracts on whether a real-world event will happen. The live price moves with supply and demand and reads as the implied probability. Read more →
How do the odds work?
Every price between 1¢ and 99¢ is the implied chance of YES. A contract settles at $1 if it resolves yes and $0 if it does not. Read more →
Prediction market contracts carry real financial risk and can resolve to zero. 18+.
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