Would you bet…
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by July 31, 2026? Predictions
A YES share pays out if this happens and NO pays out if it doesn’t — so the 6% price is just the market’s implied chance of YES. How YES/NO contracts work →
- Platform
- Polymarket
- Volume
- $23,570 volume
- Resolves
- 31 Jul 2026
- Updated
- 4 days ago
Traders on Polymarket currently price Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by July 31, 2026? at 6% — a long shot the market largely dismisses. The figure reflects real money changing hands, not a poll, so it moves as new information lands.
How it resolves
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a national government, its military, or a broad consensus of credible reporting confirms that the listed country's warships transited through the Strait of Hormuz between market creation and July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A "warship…
The market is scheduled to settle on 31 Jul 2026. Until then the price is the live read on the question — worth watching, not a guarantee.
FAQ
What does a 6% price mean?
It is the market-implied probability. A 6% YES price means traders collectively judge the event about 6% likely.
How does this market resolve?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a national government, its military, or a broad consensus of credible reporting confirms that the listed country's warships transited through the Strait of Hormuz between market creation and July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Where can I trade it?
This market is listed on Polymarket. Prediction markets carry real financial risk and may not be available in every state.
What world markets can I trade?
Foreign elections, conflicts and ceasefires, leadership changes, sanctions and major treaties.
Are these reliable forecasts?
They reflect real money at stake, which tends to make them sharper than punditry — but they’re probabilities, not certainties.
Where can I trade world events?
Polymarket has the deepest global markets and Kalshi covers many too — see our reviews.
What is a prediction market?
A prediction market lets you trade contracts on whether a real-world event will happen. The live price moves with supply and demand and reads as the implied probability. Read more →
How do the odds work?
Every price between 1¢ and 99¢ is the implied chance of YES. A contract settles at $1 if it resolves yes and $0 if it does not. Read more →
Prediction market contracts carry real financial risk and can resolve to zero. 18+.
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