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Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Predictions
A YES share pays out if this happens and NO pays out if it doesn’t — so the 4% price is just the market’s implied chance of YES. How YES/NO contracts work →
- Platform
- Polymarket
- Volume
- $1,312,450 volume
- Resolves
- 31 Dec 2026
- Updated
- 1 week ago
4% odds on Machado leading Venezuela by year-end 2026 reflect a market that has has slipped down 2 points. The pricing is all but ruled out—traders see her path to power as nearly closed. The logic is straightforward: Nicolás Maduro controls the state apparatus, security forces, and electoral machinery. Machado, barred from running in 2024, has limited institutional leverage from exile.
What would move this? A sharp fracture in the military or security establishment, a major economic shock that destabilizes the regime, or international intervention could all shift probabilities upward. A credible opposition coalition winning a supervised election would be the clearest catalyst. Conversely, any consolidation of Maduro’s hold—successful constitutional maneuvers, key defection arrests, or regional isolation—would push the price lower still.
At 4%, the market is pricing Machado as a long-shot scenario. That’s not irrational given current conditions. But Venezuelan politics has surprised before, and eighteen months is a long horizon. $1.31M in trading suggests modest conviction rather than consensus.
FAQ
What does a 4% price mean?
It is the market-implied probability. A 4% YES price means traders collectively judge the event about 4% likely.
How does this market resolve?
This market will resolve to the individual who officially holds the position of the head of state of Venezuela on Dec 31, 2026 at 12 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, "officially holds" refers to the individual that was formally appointed, confirmed (if confirmation is required), and sworn in
Where can I trade it?
This market is listed on Polymarket. Prediction markets carry real financial risk and may not be available in every state.
What world markets can I trade?
Foreign elections, conflicts and ceasefires, leadership changes, sanctions and major treaties.
Are these reliable forecasts?
They reflect real money at stake, which tends to make them sharper than punditry — but they’re probabilities, not certainties.
Where can I trade world events?
Polymarket has the deepest global markets and Kalshi covers many too — see our reviews.
What is a prediction market?
A prediction market lets you trade contracts on whether a real-world event will happen. The live price moves with supply and demand and reads as the implied probability. Read more →
How do the odds work?
Every price between 1¢ and 99¢ is the implied chance of YES. A contract settles at $1 if it resolves yes and $0 if it does not. Read more →
Prediction market contracts carry real financial risk and can resolve to zero. 18+.
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