Would you bet…
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by June 30? Predictions
A YES share pays out if this happens and NO pays out if it doesn’t — so the 4% price is just the market’s implied chance of YES. How YES/NO contracts work →
- Platform
- Polymarket
- Volume
- $207,059 volume
- Resolves
- 30 Jun 2026
- Updated
- 2 weeks ago
The market prices an Iranian withdrawal announcement as 4%, putting it all but ruled out. With $207k in volume, this is a thin market, which means wide bid-ask spreads and less price discovery than usual—worth noting before trading.
The June 14 MOU established a 60-day negotiation window toward a final agreement. A withdrawal announcement would be a dramatic reversal of Iran’s public commitment to that framework. The 96% price reflects the base case: that Iran stays at the table through the deadline. What moves this market would be official Iranian statements abandoning talks, sharp escalations in rhetoric from Tehran, or evidence of bad-faith negotiation from either side. Structural factors—domestic politics in Iran, U.S. policy shifts, regional pressure—could shift odds quickly.
The price is all but ruled out, not impossible. But thin liquidity means any move will feel outsized. Watch for official Iranian government statements and wire reports from Tehran before trading large.
FAQ
What does a 4% price mean?
It is the market-implied probability. A 4% YES price means traders collectively judge the event about 4% likely.
How does this market resolve?
On June 14, 2026, the United States and Iran announced a memorandum of understanding ending the immediate conflict and establishing a 60-day framework for negotiating a final agreement. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Iranian government, or an authorized representative of the Iranian gover
Where can I trade it?
This market is listed on Polymarket. Prediction markets carry real financial risk and may not be available in every state.
What world markets can I trade?
Foreign elections, conflicts and ceasefires, leadership changes, sanctions and major treaties.
Are these reliable forecasts?
They reflect real money at stake, which tends to make them sharper than punditry — but they’re probabilities, not certainties.
Where can I trade world events?
Polymarket has the deepest global markets and Kalshi covers many too — see our reviews.
What is a prediction market?
A prediction market lets you trade contracts on whether a real-world event will happen. The live price moves with supply and demand and reads as the implied probability. Read more →
How do the odds work?
Every price between 1¢ and 99¢ is the implied chance of YES. A contract settles at $1 if it resolves yes and $0 if it does not. Read more →
Prediction market contracts carry real financial risk and can resolve to zero. 18+.
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