Would you bet…
Will 100 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026? Predictions
A YES share pays out if this happens and NO pays out if it doesn’t — so the 9% price is just the market’s implied chance of YES. How YES/NO contracts work →
- Platform
- Polymarket
- Volume
- $6,432 volume
- Resolves
- 31 Jul 2026
- Updated
- 1 week ago
9% prices this as a long shot, a bet that some day between now and July 2026 will see at least 100 ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz in a single 24-hour period. $6k in volume suggests limited conviction on either side. in recent trading has held, keeping the price where it sits.
The strait’s daily traffic has historically run well above 100 vessels—IMF Portwatch data shows routine days in the 80–120 range—which makes the threshold itself not extreme. But the resolution rule is narrow: it requires a finalized daily count from IMF Portwatch, and that data takes time to confirm. Geopolitical disruption (mine-laying, military action, blockade) would suppress traffic; conversely, any normalization or uptick in global shipping would increase the odds of hitting the mark on any given day across an 18-month window.
The a long shot odds reflect skepticism that either IMF will report such a figure or that conditions will permit it. Traders would need conviction on either sustained high traffic or a specific catalyst to move the needle. At this price, it’s a bet on normalcy persisting long enough for one routine day to register.
FAQ
What does a 9% price mean?
It is the market-implied probability. A 9% YES price means traders collectively judge the event about 9% likely.
How does this market resolve?
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any finalized daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz reported by IMF Portwatch is equal to or above the listed value for any date between market creation and July 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Transi
Where can I trade it?
This market is listed on Polymarket. Prediction markets carry real financial risk and may not be available in every state.
What world markets can I trade?
Foreign elections, conflicts and ceasefires, leadership changes, sanctions and major treaties.
Are these reliable forecasts?
They reflect real money at stake, which tends to make them sharper than punditry — but they’re probabilities, not certainties.
Where can I trade world events?
Polymarket has the deepest global markets and Kalshi covers many too — see our reviews.
What is a prediction market?
A prediction market lets you trade contracts on whether a real-world event will happen. The live price moves with supply and demand and reads as the implied probability. Read more →
How do the odds work?
Every price between 1¢ and 99¢ is the implied chance of YES. A contract settles at $1 if it resolves yes and $0 if it does not. Read more →
Prediction market contracts carry real financial risk and can resolve to zero. 18+.
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