Would you bet…
Trump out as President before 2027? Predictions
A YES share pays out if this happens and NO pays out if it doesn’t — so the 7% price is just the market’s implied chance of YES. How YES/NO contracts work →
- Platform
- Polymarket
- Volume
- $9,800,685 volume
- Resolves
- 31 Dec 2026
- Updated
- 2 days ago
The market prices Trump’s departure from office before the end of 2026 at 7%, a a long shot that has has held steady barely a point either way. With $9.8M in volume, traders are expressing high confidence in Trump completing his term—but the modest price movement suggests the underlying uncertainty hasn’t shifted much either way.
What would move this contract sharply: a serious health event, a successful removal via the 25th Amendment, conviction and sentencing that forces resignation, or an unforeseen constitutional crisis. The resolution rules require permanent removal, and an announced resignation before December 31, 2026 would trigger immediate settlement to Yes—no waiting for the effective date. The bar is high but not imaginary.
At 7%, the market is essentially saying Trump’s removal is unlikely but real. That’s a reasonable read given the political math: impeachment and removal require two-thirds Senate support, 25th Amendment removal faces cabinet and succession hurdles, and resignation absent duress is not his pattern. The price is a live read, not a forecast. 31 December 2026
FAQ
What does a 7% price mean?
It is the market-implied probability. A 7% YES price means traders collectively judge the event about 7% likely.
How does this market resolve?
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/remo
Where can I trade it?
This market is listed on Polymarket. Prediction markets carry real financial risk and may not be available in every state.
What world markets can I trade?
Foreign elections, conflicts and ceasefires, leadership changes, sanctions and major treaties.
Are these reliable forecasts?
They reflect real money at stake, which tends to make them sharper than punditry — but they’re probabilities, not certainties.
Where can I trade world events?
Polymarket has the deepest global markets and Kalshi covers many too — see our reviews.
What is a prediction market?
A prediction market lets you trade contracts on whether a real-world event will happen. The live price moves with supply and demand and reads as the implied probability. Read more →
How do the odds work?
Every price between 1¢ and 99¢ is the implied chance of YES. A contract settles at $1 if it resolves yes and $0 if it does not. Read more →
Prediction market contracts carry real financial risk and can resolve to zero. 18+.
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