Would you bet…
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 7? Predictions
A YES share pays out if this happens and NO pays out if it doesn’t — so the 4% price is just the market’s implied chance of YES. How YES/NO contracts work →
- Platform
- Polymarket
- Volume
- $467,520 volume
- Resolves
- 7 Jul 2026
- Updated
- 1 week ago
The market prices a return to normal Hormuz traffic as all but ruled out, with 4% for yes and 96% for no. in recent trading, suggesting traders have settled on a baseline view: disruption to shipping through the strait persists, and a rebound to 60 daily transits by early July 2026 is unlikely.
The resolution hinge is precise: IMF Portwatch must publish a 7-day moving average of ship arrivals at or above 60 for any single date before July 7. That threshold matters. Pre-disruption baseline traffic ran higher; the market is essentially betting that whatever current conditions are (whether geopolitical tension, insurance costs, or rerouting behavior), they don’t fully normalize in the next six months. Volume of $468k suggests modest conviction either way.
To move this price, you’d need either concrete evidence of near-term de-escalation in the region or a sharp uptick in actual transit data from Portwatch itself. The latter is the only hard signal that matters; conjecture about negotiations won’t move it much. Right now the market is pricing in stickiness. Watch the actual shipping data.
FAQ
What does a 4% price mean?
It is the market-implied probability. A 4% YES price means traders collectively judge the event about 4% likely.
How does this market resolve?
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and July 7, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Daily transit calls include co
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A prediction market lets you trade contracts on whether a real-world event will happen. The live price moves with supply and demand and reads as the implied probability. Read more →
How do the odds work?
Every price between 1¢ and 99¢ is the implied chance of YES. A contract settles at $1 if it resolves yes and $0 if it does not. Read more →
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