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Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Predictions
A YES share pays out if this happens and NO pays out if it doesn’t — so the 5% price is just the market’s implied chance of YES. How YES/NO contracts work →
- Platform
- Polymarket
- Volume
- $13,712,154 volume
- Resolves
- 31 Jul 2026
- Updated
- 3 minutes ago
The market is pricing this as all but ruled out, with 5% on yes and 95% on no, on volume of $13.71M. in recent trading, suggesting traders are still calibrating their baseline for what “normal” means in the Strait after months of regional tension.
The resolution hinge is specific: IMF Portwatch must record a 7-day moving average of at least 60 daily transit calls by July 31, 2026. The criteria include container, bulk, RoRo, general cargo, and tankers—the main commercial arteries. The market essentially bets on whether shipping will recover to a pre-disruption steady state within 18 months. That’s a long runway, and the bar is measurable: Portwatch publishes daily, so the 7-day average will be visible in real time as it approaches or recedes from 60.
What moves this further depends on two things: actual traffic data (which will start appearing in Portwatch’s record within weeks) and any new geopolitical shocks. Early readings below 60 would push 95% higher; sustained momentum toward 60 would favor 5%. Right now, the market is split almost evenly, which reflects genuine uncertainty about both recovery speed and the stability of regional conditions through summer 2026.
FAQ
What does a 5% price mean?
It is the market-implied probability. A 5% YES price means traders collectively judge the event about 5% likely.
How does this market resolve?
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and July 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Daily transit calls include c
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How do the odds work?
Every price between 1¢ and 99¢ is the implied chance of YES. A contract settles at $1 if it resolves yes and $0 if it does not. Read more →
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