Would you bet…
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Predictions
A YES share pays out if this happens and NO pays out if it doesn’t — so the 4% price is just the market’s implied chance of YES. How YES/NO contracts work →
- Platform
- Polymarket
- Volume
- $6,867,491 volume
- Resolves
- 15 Jul 2026
- Updated
- 4 days ago
The market is pricing this as all but ruled out, with 4% for a return to normal traffic by mid-July 2026. That’s barely a point either way has held steady over the past week—a modest shift, but one worth parsing. The $6.87M in volume suggests real interest in the outcome.
The resolution hinges on a specific metric: IMF Portwatch’s 7-day moving average of daily transit calls hitting 60 or above at any point before July 15. That threshold matters. The baseline for “normal” is embedded in the data itself—you need to know what pre-disruption traffic looked like to judge whether 60 is achievable or a fantasy. The criteria exclude unreported ships, so only official IMF figures count.
What moves this further? Any news of sustained regional de-escalation would help 4%. Conversely, fresh disruptions to shipping lanes would reinforce 96%’s dominance. For now, the market is saying: don’t bet on a quick return to business-as-usual in one of the world’s most volatile chokepoints. The price reflects skepticism, not certainty.
FAQ
What does a 4% price mean?
It is the market-implied probability. A 4% YES price means traders collectively judge the event about 4% likely.
How does this market resolve?
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and July 15, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Daily transit calls include c
Where can I trade it?
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Are these reliable forecasts?
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What is a prediction market?
A prediction market lets you trade contracts on whether a real-world event will happen. The live price moves with supply and demand and reads as the implied probability. Read more →
How do the odds work?
Every price between 1¢ and 99¢ is the implied chance of YES. A contract settles at $1 if it resolves yes and $0 if it does not. Read more →
Prediction market contracts carry real financial risk and can resolve to zero. 18+.
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