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Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Predictions
A YES share pays out if this happens and NO pays out if it doesn’t — so the 63% price is just the market’s implied chance of YES. How YES/NO contracts work →
- Platform
- Polymarket
- Volume
- $4,714,573 volume
- Resolves
- 31 Dec 2026
- Updated
- 2 minutes ago
The market is the favorite, with 63% pricing in a strong bet that the Strait of Hormuz will see normal shipping traffic by year-end 2026. The price has slipped down 3 points, suggesting traders are slightly more cautious than they were seven days ago—though 63% remains deeply favored.
The resolution hinges on a specific metric: IMF Portwatch must publish a 7-day moving average of at least 60 daily ship transits. That’s a concrete bar. Normal traffic means roughly 60 vessels per day crossing one of the world’s most critical oil chokepoints. The baseline matters: if Hormuz traffic has already recovered to or near that level, 63% makes sense. If regional tensions keep it depressed well below 60, 37% becomes the play.
What moves this further? Any credible report of sustained transit counts from IMF Portwatch will reset expectations immediately. Geopolitical flare-ups in the Persian Gulf or broader Middle East shipping disruptions would pull the price down. The current 63% level reflects a market assumption that whatever friction exists now will ease within two years. $4.71M shows real money behind the question. Watch the data.
FAQ
What does a 63% price mean?
It is the market-implied probability. A 63% YES price means traders collectively judge the event about 63% likely.
How does this market resolve?
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Daily transit calls inclu
Where can I trade it?
This market is listed on Polymarket. Prediction markets carry real financial risk and may not be available in every state.
What world markets can I trade?
Foreign elections, conflicts and ceasefires, leadership changes, sanctions and major treaties.
Are these reliable forecasts?
They reflect real money at stake, which tends to make them sharper than punditry — but they’re probabilities, not certainties.
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Polymarket has the deepest global markets and Kalshi covers many too — see our reviews.
What is a prediction market?
A prediction market lets you trade contracts on whether a real-world event will happen. The live price moves with supply and demand and reads as the implied probability. Read more →
How do the odds work?
Every price between 1¢ and 99¢ is the implied chance of YES. A contract settles at $1 if it resolves yes and $0 if it does not. Read more →
Prediction market contracts carry real financial risk and can resolve to zero. 18+.
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