Would you bet…
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31? Predictions
A YES share pays out if this happens and NO pays out if it doesn’t — so the 18% price is just the market’s implied chance of YES. How YES/NO contracts work →
- Platform
- Polymarket
- Volume
- $269,888 volume
- Resolves
- 31 Aug 2026
- Updated
- 5 minutes ago
Traders on Polymarket currently price Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31? at 18% — a long shot the market largely dismisses. The figure reflects real money changing hands, not a poll, so it moves as new information lands.
How it resolves
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and August 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Daily transit calls include container, dry…
The market is scheduled to settle on 31 Aug 2026. Until then the price is the live read on the question — worth watching, not a guarantee.
FAQ
What does a 18% price mean?
It is the market-implied probability. A 18% YES price means traders collectively judge the event about 18% likely.
How does this market resolve?
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and August 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Daily transit calls include
Where can I trade it?
This market is listed on Polymarket. Prediction markets carry real financial risk and may not be available in every state.
Are political prediction markets legal in the US?
On CFTC-regulated exchanges, political event contracts are available to traders 18+ in most states, though the picture is contested and varies by state. See our guide on whether prediction markets are legal.
How are the odds set?
By traders, not a bookmaker. The price is the live consensus of everyone buying and selling, expressed as a probability between 1% and 99%.
Where can I trade politics markets?
Kalshi and Polymarket carry the deepest US political markets — compare them in our Kalshi and Polymarket reviews.
What is a prediction market?
A prediction market lets you trade contracts on whether a real-world event will happen. The live price moves with supply and demand and reads as the implied probability. Read more →
How do the odds work?
Every price between 1¢ and 99¢ is the implied chance of YES. A contract settles at $1 if it resolves yes and $0 if it does not. Read more →
Prediction market contracts carry real financial risk and can resolve to zero. 18+.
Before you trade
Read our independent reviews of the platforms behind these markets.