Would you bet…
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 18? Predictions
A YES share pays out if this happens and NO pays out if it doesn’t — so the 96% price is just the market’s implied chance of YES. How YES/NO contracts work →
- Platform
- Polymarket
- Volume
- $56,641 volume
- Resolves
- 18 Jul 2026
- Updated
- 1 month ago
The market prices a ceasefire holding through mid-July at 96%, a all but certain outcome. With $57k in volume and in recent trading, the contract has held recently—suggesting traders see the status quo as durable, at least through this near-term date.
The resolution hinges on a narrow definition: any air strike or qualifying military action by either side terminates the ceasefire. That’s a high bar for “Yes” but not an impossible one. The market is pricing in roughly 4% odds that either Israel or Iran breaks the line between now and July 18. That’s a tight margin of error over roughly two weeks, which explains why the contract sits where it does.
Movement would likely follow either direct escalation—airstrikes, naval action, or explicit targeting by either side—or credible intelligence of imminent attack. De-escalatory signals or extended quiet would push 96% higher; any ambiguous incident (civilian casualties, cyber activity, proxy actions) would probably spark debate over resolution without shifting the contract decisively. This market settles on 18 July 2026 and trades on Polymarket.
FAQ
What does a 96% price mean?
It is the market-implied probability. A 96% YES price means traders collectively judge the event about 96% likely.
How does this market resolve?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a state of ceasefire remains in effect between Israel and Iran through the listed date, 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time (IRST). Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”. A state of ceasefire will be considered to no longer be in effect between Israel and Iran if
Where can I trade it?
This market is listed on Polymarket. Prediction markets carry real financial risk and may not be available in every state.
What world markets can I trade?
Foreign elections, conflicts and ceasefires, leadership changes, sanctions and major treaties.
Are these reliable forecasts?
They reflect real money at stake, which tends to make them sharper than punditry — but they’re probabilities, not certainties.
Where can I trade world events?
Polymarket has the deepest global markets and Kalshi covers many too — see our reviews.
What is a prediction market?
A prediction market lets you trade contracts on whether a real-world event will happen. The live price moves with supply and demand and reads as the implied probability. Read more →
How do the odds work?
Every price between 1¢ and 99¢ is the implied chance of YES. A contract settles at $1 if it resolves yes and $0 if it does not. Read more →
Prediction market contracts carry real financial risk and can resolve to zero. 18+.
Before you trade
Read our independent reviews of the platforms behind these markets.