Would you bet…
Iran successfully targets shipping on July 3? Predictions
A YES share pays out if this happens and NO pays out if it doesn’t — so the 7% price is just the market’s implied chance of YES. How YES/NO contracts work →
- Platform
- Polymarket
- Volume
- $20,030 volume
- Resolves
- 3 Jul 2026
- Updated
- 1 week ago
The market prices an Iranian kinetic strike on shipping for July 3 at 7%, with 93% on the no-action side. The qualitative read is a long shot, and volume sits at $20k. in recent trading has held, suggesting little repricing around this specific date.
The price reflects both the narrow window (a single day) and the high bar for resolution: Iranian forces must either attack a commercial vessel or seize one, with the action either claimed by Tehran or confirmed to originate from Iranian territory or forces. Military targets don’t count. These constraints matter. Iran has conducted strikes on shipping before, but typically signals intent beforehand or claims attacks afterward. A surprise, unattributed strike on July 3 specifically would be unusual.
Movement would require either fresh intelligence of imminent Iranian action, a regional escalation that raises threat levels sharply, or a statement from Iranian officials flagging the date. Absent that, the market is pricing July 3 as an ordinary day. As a price, 7% reflects genuine tail risk—something could happen—but also the base rate: most days, Iran does not attack commercial shipping.
FAQ
What does a 7% price mean?
It is the market-implied probability. A 7% YES price means traders collectively judge the event about 7% likely.
How does this market resolve?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date IRST (UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Attacks on military vessels will not be considered. Only military actions by Iranian forces exp
Where can I trade it?
This market is listed on Polymarket. Prediction markets carry real financial risk and may not be available in every state.
What world markets can I trade?
Foreign elections, conflicts and ceasefires, leadership changes, sanctions and major treaties.
Are these reliable forecasts?
They reflect real money at stake, which tends to make them sharper than punditry — but they’re probabilities, not certainties.
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What is a prediction market?
A prediction market lets you trade contracts on whether a real-world event will happen. The live price moves with supply and demand and reads as the implied probability. Read more →
How do the odds work?
Every price between 1¢ and 99¢ is the implied chance of YES. A contract settles at $1 if it resolves yes and $0 if it does not. Read more →
Prediction market contracts carry real financial risk and can resolve to zero. 18+.
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