Would you bet…
Iran successfully targets shipping by August 31? Predictions
A YES share pays out if this happens and NO pays out if it doesn’t — so the 93% price is just the market’s implied chance of YES. How YES/NO contracts work →
- Platform
- Polymarket
- Volume
- $1,857 volume
- Resolves
- 31 Jul 2026
- Updated
- 2 weeks ago
The market prices Iranian kinetic action against commercial shipping by month-end at 93%, a strongly favored assessment. With $2k in volume and in recent trading, the contract has held recently, suggesting conviction among traders on the likelihood of direct Iranian military strikes on vessels.
The price reflects real operational history: Iran has seized or attacked commercial ships multiple times in recent years, particularly in the Persian Gulf and Strait of Hormuz. The resolution criteria are narrow—only kinetic strikes or seizures by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by Tehran or confirmed to originate from Iranian territory count—which eliminates ambiguous incidents but captures the core risk. Military vessels don’t trigger resolution, limiting the surface area considerably.
What would move this further: escalation in U.S.-Iran tensions, direct Iranian statements threatening shipping, or intelligence reports of Iranian naval deployments. Conversely, diplomatic progress or explicit Iranian restraint signals would pressure it lower. With less than two months remaining, the market is essentially pricing in either heightened baseline risk or specific intelligence of Iranian intent. The price is a live read on current conditions, not a prediction.
FAQ
What does a 93% price mean?
It is the market-implied probability. A 93% YES price means traders collectively judge the event about 93% likely.
How does this market resolve?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or seize control of a commercial ship between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM IRST (UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Attacks on military vessels will not be considered. Only mil
Where can I trade it?
This market is listed on Polymarket. Prediction markets carry real financial risk and may not be available in every state.
What world markets can I trade?
Foreign elections, conflicts and ceasefires, leadership changes, sanctions and major treaties.
Are these reliable forecasts?
They reflect real money at stake, which tends to make them sharper than punditry — but they’re probabilities, not certainties.
Where can I trade world events?
Polymarket has the deepest global markets and Kalshi covers many too — see our reviews.
What is a prediction market?
A prediction market lets you trade contracts on whether a real-world event will happen. The live price moves with supply and demand and reads as the implied probability. Read more →
How do the odds work?
Every price between 1¢ and 99¢ is the implied chance of YES. A contract settles at $1 if it resolves yes and $0 if it does not. Read more →
Prediction market contracts carry real financial risk and can resolve to zero. 18+.
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