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Iran leadership change by September 30? Predictions
A YES share pays out if this happens and NO pays out if it doesn’t — so the 11% price is just the market’s implied chance of YES. How YES/NO contracts work →
- Platform
- Polymarket
- Volume
- $12,870 volume
- Resolves
- 30 Sep 2026
- Updated
- 2 minutes ago
The market prices Iran’s Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei stepping down or losing power before September 30 as 11%, making this a long shot. With $13k in total volume and in recent trading, traders are pricing in very low odds of any near-term succession or forcible removal.
The resolution criteria are unusually specific: Khamenei must cease to be the de facto leader through removal, detention, or loss of function. That’s a high bar over roughly nine months. Iran’s succession mechanisms are opaque, but wholesale leadership change typically requires either external pressure (military intervention, which carries enormous costs) or internal fracture severe enough to dislodge someone in consolidated power. Current conditions don’t obviously point to either.
What might move this higher: credible reporting of serious health crisis, major military defeat or external conflict that destabilizes the regime, or evidence of elite fracture. What keeps it pinned: the absence of visible succession pressure and the gap between public discontent and actual power transfer. The price reflects genuine scarcity of near-term pathways to leadership change, not certainty that none exist.
FAQ
What does a 11% price mean?
It is the market-implied probability. A 11% YES price means traders collectively judge the event about 11% likely.
How does this market resolve?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto le
Where can I trade it?
This market is listed on Polymarket. Prediction markets carry real financial risk and may not be available in every state.
What world markets can I trade?
Foreign elections, conflicts and ceasefires, leadership changes, sanctions and major treaties.
Are these reliable forecasts?
They reflect real money at stake, which tends to make them sharper than punditry — but they’re probabilities, not certainties.
Where can I trade world events?
Polymarket has the deepest global markets and Kalshi covers many too — see our reviews.
What is a prediction market?
A prediction market lets you trade contracts on whether a real-world event will happen. The live price moves with supply and demand and reads as the implied probability. Read more →
How do the odds work?
Every price between 1¢ and 99¢ is the implied chance of YES. A contract settles at $1 if it resolves yes and $0 if it does not. Read more →
Prediction market contracts carry real financial risk and can resolve to zero. 18+.
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