Would you bet…
Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on July 31? Predictions
A YES share pays out if this happens and NO pays out if it doesn’t — so the 11% price is just the market’s implied chance of YES. How YES/NO contracts work →
- Platform
- Polymarket
- Volume
- $33,024 volume
- Resolves
- 31 Jul 2026
- Updated
- 5 minutes ago
Traders on Polymarket currently price Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on July 31? at 11% — a long shot the market largely dismisses. The figure reflects real money changing hands, not a poll, so it moves as new information lands.
How it resolves
This market will resolve to the second-largest company in the world by market cap on July 31, 2026, as of market close. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
The market is scheduled to settle on 31 Jul 2026. Until then the price is the live read on the question — worth watching, not a guarantee.
FAQ
What does a 11% price mean?
It is the market-implied probability. A 11% YES price means traders collectively judge the event about 11% likely.
How does this market resolve?
This market will resolve to the second-largest company in the world by market cap on July 31, 2026, as of market close. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Where can I trade it?
This market is listed on Polymarket. Prediction markets carry real financial risk and may not be available in every state.
What economic events can I trade?
Fed meetings, CPI and PCE inflation, nonfarm payrolls, unemployment, GDP and recession calls are the most liquid.
How is this different from futures?
Event contracts are simple binary yes/no positions priced from $0 to $1, rather than leveraged futures — easier to size and read as probabilities.
Which platform is best for economics?
Kalshi has the broadest macro slate; see our Kalshi review.
What is a prediction market?
A prediction market lets you trade contracts on whether a real-world event will happen. The live price moves with supply and demand and reads as the implied probability. Read more →
How do the odds work?
Every price between 1¢ and 99¢ is the implied chance of YES. A contract settles at $1 if it resolves yes and $0 if it does not. Read more →
Prediction market contracts carry real financial risk and can resolve to zero. 18+.
Before you trade
Read our independent reviews of the platforms behind these markets.