Would you bet…
Wimbledon WTA: Katie Swan vs Madison Keys Predictions
A YES share pays out if this happens and NO pays out if it doesn’t — so the 5% price is just the market’s implied chance of YES. How YES/NO contracts work →
- Platform
- Polymarket
- Volume
- $78,136 volume
- Resolves
- 8 Jul 2026
- Updated
- 1 week ago
Madison Keys is priced as a heavy favorite at 95%, leaving Swan as all but ruled out at 5%. The market has in recent trading, with $78k in total trading volume on Polymarket. The gap reflects Keys’s ranking advantage and experience on grass—she’s a former US Open finalist with a track record in majors, while Swan, a British wildcard, is fighting back from injury and lacks comparable tour credentials.
For Swan to move the needle, she’d need either a surprise warm-up result on grass or news of a Keys injury or withdrawal. The resolution criteria create a small edge for the current pricing: if the match doesn’t finish cleanly within a week, it splits the pot, which slightly penalizes both outright bets. Keys should win a straight sets match more often than not, but Wimbledon’s grass and Swan’s home-crowd energy mean upset probability isn’t zero.
At 5%, this is a classic long-shot play—you’re getting all but ruled out odds for what the market sees as a genuine underdog scenario. The price looks honest rather than inflated. 8 July 2026 on Polymarket.
FAQ
What does a 5% price mean?
It is the market-implied probability. A 5% YES price means traders collectively judge the event about 5% likely.
How does this market resolve?
This market refers to the tennis match between Katie Swan and Madison Keys in the Wimbledon WTA, originally scheduled for July 1, 2026 at 6:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Katie Swan' if Katie Swan advances against Madison Keys. This market will resolve to 'Madison Keys' if Madison Keys adva
Where can I trade it?
This market is listed on Polymarket. Prediction markets carry real financial risk and may not be available in every state.
Is this the same as sports betting?
Legally it’s event-contract trading on a regulated exchange, not a sportsbook bet — though the experience is similar. Read our prediction markets vs sports betting explainer.
Can I trade sports where betting is illegal?
Often yes, because these are federally regulated contracts — but sports is restricted in some states, so always check your state first.
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Kalshi has the broadest catalog; DraftKings and FanDuel are strong for sports-first traders. See our reviews.
What is a prediction market?
A prediction market lets you trade contracts on whether a real-world event will happen. The live price moves with supply and demand and reads as the implied probability. Read more →
How do the odds work?
Every price between 1¢ and 99¢ is the implied chance of YES. A contract settles at $1 if it resolves yes and $0 if it does not. Read more →
Prediction market contracts carry real financial risk and can resolve to zero. 18+.
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