Would you bet…
Contrexeville: Amandine Hesse vs Mayar Sherif Predictions
A YES share pays out if this happens and NO pays out if it doesn’t — so the 5% price is just the market’s implied chance of YES. How YES/NO contracts work →
- Platform
- Polymarket
- Volume
- $103,876 volume
- Resolves
- 15 Jul 2026
- Updated
- 1 day ago
Amandine Hesse is all but ruled out to advance past Mayar Sherif at Contrexeville, priced at 5% on Polymarket. The market has seen $104k in volume, though in recent trading has held recently. That 5% price reflects either a substantial skill gap or injury/withdrawal risk—the resolution criteria include cancellation or delays beyond seven days, which introduce uncertainty separate from match outcome.
To move this market meaningfully upward, you’d need either evidence of Sherif’s form advantage heading into July 8, news of Hesse injury or withdrawal, or a significant reshuffling of seeding. Downward pressure would come from the inverse: Hesse confirmation of fitness, or Sherif’s injury report. The tight pricing at 5% leaves little room for small updates; movement will require material new information about either player’s condition or ranking position.
At 5%, the market is pricing Hesse as a heavy favorite. That’s a live read, not a forecast. Check injury news closer to match day.
FAQ
What does a 5% price mean?
It is the market-implied probability. A 5% YES price means traders collectively judge the event about 5% likely.
How does this market resolve?
This market refers to the tennis match between Amandine Hesse and Mayar Sherif in the Contrexeville, originally scheduled for July 8, 2026 at 11:30AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Amandine Hesse' if Amandine Hesse advances against Mayar Sherif. This market will resolve to 'Mayar Sherif' if Maya
Where can I trade it?
This market is listed on Polymarket. Prediction markets carry real financial risk and may not be available in every state.
Is this the same as sports betting?
Legally it’s event-contract trading on a regulated exchange, not a sportsbook bet — though the experience is similar. Read our prediction markets vs sports betting explainer.
Can I trade sports where betting is illegal?
Often yes, because these are federally regulated contracts — but sports is restricted in some states, so always check your state first.
Best platforms for sports?
Kalshi has the broadest catalog; DraftKings and FanDuel are strong for sports-first traders. See our reviews.
What is a prediction market?
A prediction market lets you trade contracts on whether a real-world event will happen. The live price moves with supply and demand and reads as the implied probability. Read more →
How do the odds work?
Every price between 1¢ and 99¢ is the implied chance of YES. A contract settles at $1 if it resolves yes and $0 if it does not. Read more →
Prediction market contracts carry real financial risk and can resolve to zero. 18+.
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