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Iasi Open: Ilinca Amariei vs Elsa Jacquemot Predictions
A YES share pays out if this happens and NO pays out if it doesn’t — so the 4% price is just the market’s implied chance of YES. How YES/NO contracts work →
- Platform
- Polymarket
- Volume
- $970,736 volume
- Resolves
- 21 Jul 2026
- Updated
- 2 minutes ago
Jacquemot is all but ruled out in this Iasi Open matchup, priced at 96%. The market has seen $971k in volume, though in recent trading. At these odds, the book is saying Amariei has almost no realistic path to victory—a reading that demands strong prior form favoring Jacquemot or a significant gap in ranking or recent results.
What would move this contract sharply: news of injury or withdrawal by Jacquemot, or a major upset result by Amariei in a tune-up match beforehand. Smaller moves might come from updated seeding data, head-to-head records, or surface-specific statistics if either player has a pronounced preference. Court conditions at the Iasi venue could matter if one player has a documented edge on clay or hard court.
The price reflects confidence, but not certainty. Tennis upsets happen often enough that 4% is never quite zero, even when the fundamentals favor the favorite heavily. Watch for lineup confirmations closer to the scheduled date and any late injury reports—those are your tells for whether this discount is properly calibrated or vulnerable to movement.
FAQ
What does a 4% price mean?
It is the market-implied probability. A 4% YES price means traders collectively judge the event about 4% likely.
How does this market resolve?
This market refers to the tennis match between Ilinca Amariei and Elsa Jacquemot in the Iasi Open, originally scheduled for July 14, 2026 at 3:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Ilinca Amariei' if Ilinca Amariei advances against Elsa Jacquemot. This market will resolve to 'Elsa Jacquemot' if El
Where can I trade it?
This market is listed on Polymarket. Prediction markets carry real financial risk and may not be available in every state.
Is this the same as sports betting?
Legally it’s event-contract trading on a regulated exchange, not a sportsbook bet — though the experience is similar. Read our prediction markets vs sports betting explainer.
Can I trade sports where betting is illegal?
Often yes, because these are federally regulated contracts — but sports is restricted in some states, so always check your state first.
Best platforms for sports?
Kalshi has the broadest catalog; DraftKings and FanDuel are strong for sports-first traders. See our reviews.
What is a prediction market?
A prediction market lets you trade contracts on whether a real-world event will happen. The live price moves with supply and demand and reads as the implied probability. Read more →
How do the odds work?
Every price between 1¢ and 99¢ is the implied chance of YES. A contract settles at $1 if it resolves yes and $0 if it does not. Read more →
Prediction market contracts carry real financial risk and can resolve to zero. 18+.
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