Would you bet…
UFC 329: Max Holloway vs. Conor McGregor (Welterweight, Main Card) Predictions
A YES share pays out if this happens and NO pays out if it doesn’t — so the 66% price is just the market’s implied chance of YES. How YES/NO contracts work →
- Platform
- Polymarket
- Volume
- $1,187,668 volume
- Resolves
- 12 Jul 2026
- Updated
- 3 days ago
66% of traders are backing Holloway as the favorite in this rematch. The market has has held steady barely a point either way, suggesting modest confidence accruing to the Hawaiian fighter since the bout was announced. With $1.19M in total volume, the pool is deep enough to price real conviction rather than noise.
The price reflects Holloway’s recent form and his 2-0 record against McGregor in their first two meetings. McGregor’s inactivity and the nearly two-year gap since his last fight weigh against him at 34%. That said, McGregor retains name-brand appeal and knockout equity; any serious injury news about Holloway or fresh footage of McGregor’s conditioning in camp could swing this materially.
The fight is set for July 11, 2026, with a technical-draw carve-out that resolves at 50-50 if things don’t conclude cleanly. 12 July 2026 on official UFC scoring. Current pricing reflects a clear lean but not a lock—typical for a marquee fight with live training-camp variables still to unfold.
FAQ
What does a 66% price mean?
It is the market-implied probability. A 66% YES price means traders collectively judge the event about 66% likely.
How does this market resolve?
This market will resolve to "Max Holloway" if Max Holloway is officially declared the winner of the fight against Conor McGregor at UFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2, scheduled for July 11, 2026. It will resolve to "Conor McGregor" if Conor McGregor is officially declared the winner. If the fight i
Where can I trade it?
This market is listed on Polymarket. Prediction markets carry real financial risk and may not be available in every state.
Is this the same as sports betting?
Legally it’s event-contract trading on a regulated exchange, not a sportsbook bet — though the experience is similar. Read our prediction markets vs sports betting explainer.
Can I trade sports where betting is illegal?
Often yes, because these are federally regulated contracts — but sports is restricted in some states, so always check your state first.
Best platforms for sports?
Kalshi has the broadest catalog; DraftKings and FanDuel are strong for sports-first traders. See our reviews.
What is a prediction market?
A prediction market lets you trade contracts on whether a real-world event will happen. The live price moves with supply and demand and reads as the implied probability. Read more →
How do the odds work?
Every price between 1¢ and 99¢ is the implied chance of YES. A contract settles at $1 if it resolves yes and $0 if it does not. Read more →
Prediction market contracts carry real financial risk and can resolve to zero. 18+.
Before you trade
Read our independent reviews of the platforms behind these markets.