Would you bet…
Spread: New York Mets (-1.5) Predictions
A YES share pays out if this happens and NO pays out if it doesn’t — so the 95% price is just the market’s implied chance of YES. How YES/NO contracts work →
- Platform
- Polymarket
- Volume
- $30,522 volume
- Resolves
- 27 Jun 2026
- Updated
- 2 weeks ago
The Mets are all but certain here, priced at 95% to win by 2+ runs. That’s a modest show of confidence in New York, who would need to overcome the Phillies on the road. in recent trading has held, though volume sits at $31k, suggesting modest conviction either way.
The -1.5 spread is a standard runline in baseball—it’s asking whether the Mets can win outright and then cover a modest margin. The market is saying no, more often than yes. That makes sense for a road game; Phillies home field is real, and spreads this tight typically price in a small home-team edge. 95% reflects that, nothing extreme.
Movement would come from lineup news (injuries, rest days), weather, or sharp money repositioning. The Phillies’ bullpen strength relative to the Mets’ starter could shift things quickly. For now, the price is a balanced all but certain—not a strong lean either way. It settles 27 June 2026 and trades on Polymarket.
FAQ
What does a 95% price mean?
It is the market-implied probability. A 95% YES price means traders collectively judge the event about 95% likely.
How does this market resolve?
In the upcoming MLB game between the Philadelphia Phillies and New York Mets, scheduled for June 27 at 4:10 PM ET: This market will resolve to "New York Mets" if the New York Mets win the game by 2 or more runs. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Philadelphia Phillies". If the game ends in a
Where can I trade it?
This market is listed on Polymarket. Prediction markets carry real financial risk and may not be available in every state.
Is this the same as sports betting?
Legally it’s event-contract trading on a regulated exchange, not a sportsbook bet — though the experience is similar. Read our prediction markets vs sports betting explainer.
Can I trade sports where betting is illegal?
Often yes, because these are federally regulated contracts — but sports is restricted in some states, so always check your state first.
Best platforms for sports?
Kalshi has the broadest catalog; DraftKings and FanDuel are strong for sports-first traders. See our reviews.
What is a prediction market?
A prediction market lets you trade contracts on whether a real-world event will happen. The live price moves with supply and demand and reads as the implied probability. Read more →
How do the odds work?
Every price between 1¢ and 99¢ is the implied chance of YES. A contract settles at $1 if it resolves yes and $0 if it does not. Read more →
Prediction market contracts carry real financial risk and can resolve to zero. 18+.
Before you trade
Read our independent reviews of the platforms behind these markets.