Would you bet…
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Mets Predictions
A YES share pays out if this happens and NO pays out if it doesn’t — so the 96% price is just the market’s implied chance of YES. How YES/NO contracts work →
- Platform
- Polymarket
- Volume
- $257,118 volume
- Resolves
- 18 Jul 2026
- Updated
- 4 months ago
The Red Sox are priced as all but certain, with 96% backing a Boston win. That pricing reflects a sharp edge favoring the home team—the game is in Boston—but without recent movement data (in recent trading), it’s hard to say whether this reflects settled conviction or reactive positioning. Volume stands at $257k, which is modest; thin trading can make prices sticky or volatile depending on the next bet size.
To move this market materially, you’d need either a late lineup change—a star player ruled out—or a shift in starting pitcher news. The Mets’ rotation health or bullpen availability could swing things, as could weather or injury reports in the 24 hours before first pitch. Right now 96% implies roughly a 3-to-1 confidence gap favoring Boston, a reasonable home-field premium if both sides are healthy.
The market 18 July 2026 on the game outcome and Polymarket for official scoring. Until game time, treat this price as a live read of current risk positioning, not a final verdict.
FAQ
What does a 96% price mean?
It is the market-implied probability. A 96% YES price means traders collectively judge the event about 96% likely.
How does this market resolve?
In the upcoming MLB game between the Boston Red Sox and New York Mets, scheduled for July 11 at 4:10PM ET: This market will resolve to "Boston Red Sox" if the Boston Red Sox win the game. This market will resolve to "New York Mets" if the New York Mets win the game. If the game is postponed, this
Where can I trade it?
This market is listed on Polymarket. Prediction markets carry real financial risk and may not be available in every state.
Is this the same as sports betting?
Legally it’s event-contract trading on a regulated exchange, not a sportsbook bet — though the experience is similar. Read our prediction markets vs sports betting explainer.
Can I trade sports where betting is illegal?
Often yes, because these are federally regulated contracts — but sports is restricted in some states, so always check your state first.
Best platforms for sports?
Kalshi has the broadest catalog; DraftKings and FanDuel are strong for sports-first traders. See our reviews.
What is a prediction market?
A prediction market lets you trade contracts on whether a real-world event will happen. The live price moves with supply and demand and reads as the implied probability. Read more →
How do the odds work?
Every price between 1¢ and 99¢ is the implied chance of YES. A contract settles at $1 if it resolves yes and $0 if it does not. Read more →
Prediction market contracts carry real financial risk and can resolve to zero. 18+.
Before you trade
Read our independent reviews of the platforms behind these markets.