Would you bet…
ITF Kramsach: Alexander Wagner vs Max Wiskandt Predictions
A YES share pays out if this happens and NO pays out if it doesn’t — so the 5% price is just the market’s implied chance of YES. How YES/NO contracts work →
- Platform
- Polymarket
- Volume
- $33,994 volume
- Resolves
- 24 Jul 2026
- Updated
- 3 months ago
Wagner is all but ruled out at 5%, with 95% on Wiskandt. The market has seen in recent trading has held, trading $34k in volume. At this price, the market is pricing Wagner as a heavy favorite—either on direct assessment of form and ranking, or on the assumption that one player has withdrawn or the match faces logistical uncertainty.
The resolution criteria allow for cancellation, tie, or a delay beyond seven days without settlement, which creates small-but-real tail risk. If either player pulls out before the July 17 match date, or if travel or weather complications delay the match beyond July 24, this market resolves to “No” rather than settling on a winner. That mechanic alone could account for a few percentage points of the NO price.
To move this market materially, you’d need either fresh injury news, a player withdrawal, or a significant shift in expectation about Wagner’s competitive level relative to Wiskandt. At 5%, the price reflects high conviction. The thin volume suggests limited trading interest, typical for lower-tier ITF matches. Watch for lineup changes or scheduling updates closer to the match date.
FAQ
What does a 5% price mean?
It is the market-implied probability. A 5% YES price means traders collectively judge the event about 5% likely.
How does this market resolve?
This market refers to the tennis match between Alexander Wagner and Max Wiskandt in the ITF Men Kramsach, originally scheduled for July 17, 2026 at 5:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Alexander Wagner' if Alexander Wagner advances against Max Wiskandt. This market will resolve to 'Max Wiskandt
Where can I trade it?
This market is listed on Polymarket. Prediction markets carry real financial risk and may not be available in every state.
Is this the same as sports betting?
Legally it’s event-contract trading on a regulated exchange, not a sportsbook bet — though the experience is similar. Read our prediction markets vs sports betting explainer.
Can I trade sports where betting is illegal?
Often yes, because these are federally regulated contracts — but sports is restricted in some states, so always check your state first.
Best platforms for sports?
Kalshi has the broadest catalog; DraftKings and FanDuel are strong for sports-first traders. See our reviews.
What is a prediction market?
A prediction market lets you trade contracts on whether a real-world event will happen. The live price moves with supply and demand and reads as the implied probability. Read more →
How do the odds work?
Every price between 1¢ and 99¢ is the implied chance of YES. A contract settles at $1 if it resolves yes and $0 if it does not. Read more →
Prediction market contracts carry real financial risk and can resolve to zero. 18+.
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