Would you bet…
Poland vs. Netherlands Predictions
A YES share pays out if this happens and NO pays out if it doesn’t — so the 93% price is just the market’s implied chance of YES. How YES/NO contracts work →
- Platform
- Polymarket
- Volume
- $28,836 volume
- Resolves
- 13 Jul 2026
- Updated
- 3 days ago
Poland enters this FIBA World Cup qualifier as a strongly favored underdog, with YES (a Poland win) priced at 93%. The Netherlands command the market’s confidence, reflected in the 7% price for a Dutch victory. $29k in volume suggests moderate interest for a qualifying match, though the liquidity is thin enough that sharp action could move the line.
in recent trading has held, so there’s no clear trend signal from recent trading. The price likely reflects pre-match fundamentals—roster strength, recent form, and home-court status—rather than live news flow. To shift this market materially, you’d need either new injury information on a key player, a significant upset in an earlier qualifier that resets perceptions of European strength, or technical factors like a late-game postponement.
The strongly favored read is honest: the market is saying Netherlands is favored, but not prohibitively so. Poland has a path. The game resolves on 13 July 2026 based on Polymarket, and cancellation triggers a 50-50 split. Take the price as a live snapshot, not a forecast.
FAQ
What does a 93% price mean?
It is the market-implied probability. A 93% YES price means traders collectively judge the event about 93% likely.
How does this market resolve?
In the upcoming FIBA WCQ Europe game, scheduled for July 6 at 12:00PM ET: If the Poland win, the market will resolve to "Poland". If the Netherlands win, the market will resolve to "Netherlands". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is
Where can I trade it?
This market is listed on Polymarket. Prediction markets carry real financial risk and may not be available in every state.
Is this the same as sports betting?
Legally it’s event-contract trading on a regulated exchange, not a sportsbook bet — though the experience is similar. Read our prediction markets vs sports betting explainer.
Can I trade sports where betting is illegal?
Often yes, because these are federally regulated contracts — but sports is restricted in some states, so always check your state first.
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Kalshi has the broadest catalog; DraftKings and FanDuel are strong for sports-first traders. See our reviews.
What is a prediction market?
A prediction market lets you trade contracts on whether a real-world event will happen. The live price moves with supply and demand and reads as the implied probability. Read more →
How do the odds work?
Every price between 1¢ and 99¢ is the implied chance of YES. A contract settles at $1 if it resolves yes and $0 if it does not. Read more →
Prediction market contracts carry real financial risk and can resolve to zero. 18+.
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