Would you bet…
Croatia vs. Israel Predictions
A YES share pays out if this happens and NO pays out if it doesn’t — so the 95% price is just the market’s implied chance of YES. How YES/NO contracts work →
- Platform
- Polymarket
- Volume
- $34,471 volume
- Resolves
- 13 Jul 2026
- Updated
- 3 days ago
95% is pricing Croatia as all but certain to win this FIBA World Cup qualifier on July 6. $34k has moved through the market in recent trading, though has held recently—a thin read given the modest liquidity. The price reflects Croatia’s higher seeding and home court, but not overwhelming confidence in the outcome.
What moves this further depends on pre-game injury reports and recent form. A key Israeli player ruled out would likely push 95% higher; unexpected Croatian absences or a hot streak by Israel would compress the gap. Sharp bettors watch team sheets and practice reports in the final 48 hours before tip-off.
One wrinkle: postponement keeps the market open rather than settling. Cancellation without a makeup triggers a 50-50 split—a tail risk priced in lightly at current levels. Polymarket will confirm the final result 13 July 2026 after the match concludes.
FAQ
What does a 95% price mean?
It is the market-implied probability. A 95% YES price means traders collectively judge the event about 95% likely.
How does this market resolve?
In the upcoming FIBA WCQ Europe game, scheduled for July 6 at 2:00PM ET: If the Croatia win, the market will resolve to "Croatia". If the Israel win, the market will resolve to "Israel". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled
Where can I trade it?
This market is listed on Polymarket. Prediction markets carry real financial risk and may not be available in every state.
Is this the same as sports betting?
Legally it’s event-contract trading on a regulated exchange, not a sportsbook bet — though the experience is similar. Read our prediction markets vs sports betting explainer.
Can I trade sports where betting is illegal?
Often yes, because these are federally regulated contracts — but sports is restricted in some states, so always check your state first.
Best platforms for sports?
Kalshi has the broadest catalog; DraftKings and FanDuel are strong for sports-first traders. See our reviews.
What is a prediction market?
A prediction market lets you trade contracts on whether a real-world event will happen. The live price moves with supply and demand and reads as the implied probability. Read more →
How do the odds work?
Every price between 1¢ and 99¢ is the implied chance of YES. A contract settles at $1 if it resolves yes and $0 if it does not. Read more →
Prediction market contracts carry real financial risk and can resolve to zero. 18+.
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