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Set 1 Winner: Wawrinka vs Berrettini Predictions
A YES share pays out if this happens and NO pays out if it doesn’t — so the 38% price is just the market’s implied chance of YES. How YES/NO contracts work →
- Platform
- Polymarket
- Volume
- $1,413 volume
- Resolves
- 6 Jul 2026
- Updated
- 1 week ago
Wawrinka is priced as an underdog at 38%, meaning the market sees Berrettini as the favored first-set winner. With $1k in volume, this is a thin market—not much money has moved through it yet, so prices could shift meaningfully on modest new interest. in recent trading suggests the market has has held recently, or data on directional movement is unavailable.
The gap between the two players’ first-set odds reflects some real tennis factors: Berrettini’s serve, which is a first-set weapon, and Wawrinka’s age and recent form at the tour level. But set odds in tennis are noisier than match odds because they depend heavily on who gets broken early and who holds serve under pressure—both partly luck. A set is only four to six games typically; variance is real.
What would move this price? An injury report on either player in the days before the match would shift it sharply. Updated odds on the full match at other books might signal new information. Otherwise, watch the betting volume: if money flows in, it’ll reveal what sharp bettors think. At 38%, this is a live market read, not a forecast.
FAQ
What does a 38% price mean?
It is the market-implied probability. A 38% YES price means traders collectively judge the event about 38% likely.
How does this market resolve?
This market refers to the tennis match between Stan Wawrinka and Matteo Berrettini in the Wimbledon ATP, originally scheduled for June 29, 2026 at 6:00AM ET. This market will resolve to “Wawrinka” if Stan Wawrinka wins the first set. It will resolve to “Berrettini” if Matteo Berrettini wins the firs
Where can I trade it?
This market is listed on Polymarket. Prediction markets carry real financial risk and may not be available in every state.
Is this the same as sports betting?
Legally it’s event-contract trading on a regulated exchange, not a sportsbook bet — though the experience is similar. Read our prediction markets vs sports betting explainer.
Can I trade sports where betting is illegal?
Often yes, because these are federally regulated contracts — but sports is restricted in some states, so always check your state first.
Best platforms for sports?
Kalshi has the broadest catalog; DraftKings and FanDuel are strong for sports-first traders. See our reviews.
What is a prediction market?
A prediction market lets you trade contracts on whether a real-world event will happen. The live price moves with supply and demand and reads as the implied probability. Read more →
How do the odds work?
Every price between 1¢ and 99¢ is the implied chance of YES. A contract settles at $1 if it resolves yes and $0 if it does not. Read more →
Prediction market contracts carry real financial risk and can resolve to zero. 18+.
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