Would you bet…
Granby: Aleksandar Vukic vs Nicolas Arseneault Predictions
A YES share pays out if this happens and NO pays out if it doesn’t — so the 94% price is just the market’s implied chance of YES. How YES/NO contracts work →
- Platform
- Polymarket
- Volume
- $133,801 volume
- Resolves
- 22 Jul 2026
- Updated
- 3 months ago
Vukic is strongly favored to advance here, with 94% pricing him as a heavy favorite over Arseneault. The match, scheduled for 22 July 2026 at Granby, shows $134k in total volume—modest for a tennis matchup between lower-ranked players. in recent trading has held, though recent price action has been muted.
The gap between 94% and 6% reflects a clear quality differential. Vukic, an Australian ranked in the low 200s on tour, brings far more ATP-level experience than Arseneault, a Canadian who competes primarily on the Challenger circuit. Head-to-head records and surface preference would tighten this if available, but the baseline ranking disparity alone accounts for most of the spread.
For 6% to gain ground, market participants would need fresh information: injury news on Vukic, a shift in court conditions favoring Arseneault’s game, or late lineup changes. Absent that, the market is pricing Vukic’s superiority fairly. Prices this steep leave little room for surprise, but that’s what the fundamentals suggest.
FAQ
What does a 94% price mean?
It is the market-implied probability. A 94% YES price means traders collectively judge the event about 94% likely.
How does this market resolve?
This market refers to the tennis match between Aleksandar Vukic and Nicolas Arseneault in the Granby, originally scheduled for July 15, 2026 at 9:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Aleksandar Vukic' if Aleksandar Vukic advances against Nicolas Arseneault. This market will resolve to 'Nicolas Ar
Where can I trade it?
This market is listed on Polymarket. Prediction markets carry real financial risk and may not be available in every state.
Is this the same as sports betting?
Legally it’s event-contract trading on a regulated exchange, not a sportsbook bet — though the experience is similar. Read our prediction markets vs sports betting explainer.
Can I trade sports where betting is illegal?
Often yes, because these are federally regulated contracts — but sports is restricted in some states, so always check your state first.
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Kalshi has the broadest catalog; DraftKings and FanDuel are strong for sports-first traders. See our reviews.
What is a prediction market?
A prediction market lets you trade contracts on whether a real-world event will happen. The live price moves with supply and demand and reads as the implied probability. Read more →
How do the odds work?
Every price between 1¢ and 99¢ is the implied chance of YES. A contract settles at $1 if it resolves yes and $0 if it does not. Read more →
Prediction market contracts carry real financial risk and can resolve to zero. 18+.
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