Would you bet…
Croatia Open, Qualification: Marko Topo vs Pol Martin Tiffon Predictions
A YES share pays out if this happens and NO pays out if it doesn’t — so the 72% price is just the market’s implied chance of YES. How YES/NO contracts work →
- Platform
- Polymarket
- Volume
- $113,629 volume
- Resolves
- 18 Jul 2026
- Updated
- 4 months ago
72% says Marko Topo is the favorite here, a decisive lean that reflects either stronger recent form, ranking advantage, or both. Without in recent trading data, it’s unclear whether this price has held on breaking news or has held steady since market open; $114k in volume suggests modest but real conviction.
The gap between 72% and 28% is material—roughly 44 percentage points—which means the market is not treating this as a toss-up. To move 72% significantly lower, you’d need evidence of Topo injury, unexpected withdrawal, or a substantial ranking or recent-match edge favoring Tiffon that hasn’t priced in yet. To move it higher, confirmation of Topo’s fitness and recent wins would tighten belief further.
This resolves 18 July 2026 on Polymarket. The match 18 July 2026 itself—no tiebreak language in the criteria, so a withdrawal or cancellation beyond 7 days would void the contract. Take 72% as a live probability, not a guarantee.
FAQ
What does a 72% price mean?
It is the market-implied probability. A 72% YES price means traders collectively judge the event about 72% likely.
How does this market resolve?
This market refers to the tennis match between Marko Topo and Pol Martin Tiffon in the Croatia Open, Qualification, originally scheduled for July 11, 2026 at 11:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Marko Topo' if Marko Topo advances against Pol Martin Tiffon. This market will resolve to 'Pol Mart
Where can I trade it?
This market is listed on Polymarket. Prediction markets carry real financial risk and may not be available in every state.
Is this the same as sports betting?
Legally it’s event-contract trading on a regulated exchange, not a sportsbook bet — though the experience is similar. Read our prediction markets vs sports betting explainer.
Can I trade sports where betting is illegal?
Often yes, because these are federally regulated contracts — but sports is restricted in some states, so always check your state first.
Best platforms for sports?
Kalshi has the broadest catalog; DraftKings and FanDuel are strong for sports-first traders. See our reviews.
What is a prediction market?
A prediction market lets you trade contracts on whether a real-world event will happen. The live price moves with supply and demand and reads as the implied probability. Read more →
How do the odds work?
Every price between 1¢ and 99¢ is the implied chance of YES. A contract settles at $1 if it resolves yes and $0 if it does not. Read more →
Prediction market contracts carry real financial risk and can resolve to zero. 18+.
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