Would you bet…
Newport: Bernard Tomic vs Braden Shick Predictions
A YES share pays out if this happens and NO pays out if it doesn’t — so the 94% price is just the market’s implied chance of YES. How YES/NO contracts work →
- Platform
- Polymarket
- Volume
- $49,330 volume
- Resolves
- 14 Jul 2026
- Updated
- 1 day ago
The market prices Tomic as strongly favored, with 94% backing his advance past Shick. $49k has traded, in recent trading has held, suggesting modest conviction either way. At these levels, the market is reading a straightforward matchup tilted toward the higher-ranked player, though the gap between 94% and 6% leaves room for either contestant to shift the picture.
Tomic’s edge in ranking and experience typically anchors such pricing, but grass-court tennis rewards specificity: serving percentages, movement comfort on the surface, recent match sharpness. Without live pre-match data on either player’s preparation or form, the current split amounts to a baseline expectation. A notable shift would require news—injury reports, withdrawn confirmations, or late-breaking fitness concerns—that alters the relative risk of showing up or not.
The 14 July 2026 date and Polymarket confirmation keep this straightforward. Until such news lands, 94% at 94% is a working hypothesis, not a lock.
FAQ
What does a 94% price mean?
It is the market-implied probability. A 94% YES price means traders collectively judge the event about 94% likely.
How does this market resolve?
This market refers to the tennis match between Bernard Tomic and Braden Shick in the Newport, originally scheduled for July 7, 2026 at 11:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Bernard Tomic' if Bernard Tomic advances against Braden Shick. This market will resolve to 'Braden Shick' if Braden Shick
Where can I trade it?
This market is listed on Polymarket. Prediction markets carry real financial risk and may not be available in every state.
Is this the same as sports betting?
Legally it’s event-contract trading on a regulated exchange, not a sportsbook bet — though the experience is similar. Read our prediction markets vs sports betting explainer.
Can I trade sports where betting is illegal?
Often yes, because these are federally regulated contracts — but sports is restricted in some states, so always check your state first.
Best platforms for sports?
Kalshi has the broadest catalog; DraftKings and FanDuel are strong for sports-first traders. See our reviews.
What is a prediction market?
A prediction market lets you trade contracts on whether a real-world event will happen. The live price moves with supply and demand and reads as the implied probability. Read more →
How do the odds work?
Every price between 1¢ and 99¢ is the implied chance of YES. A contract settles at $1 if it resolves yes and $0 if it does not. Read more →
Prediction market contracts carry real financial risk and can resolve to zero. 18+.
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