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Trieste: Henri Squire vs Alvaro Guillen Meza Predictions
A YES share pays out if this happens and NO pays out if it doesn’t — so the 86% price is just the market’s implied chance of YES. How YES/NO contracts work →
- Platform
- Polymarket
- Volume
- $47,885 volume
- Resolves
- 13 Jul 2026
- Updated
- 3 days ago
Henri Squire is strongly favored at 86% to advance past Alvaro Guillen Meza in Trieste. The market has seen $48k in trading volume, though in recent trading. What’s driving the heavy lean toward Squire? The simplest read: ranking and recent form. Without access to live ATP data here, the price itself is the signal—traders are confident enough to push Squire this high, which usually means a gap in seeding, recent results, or head-to-head record.
For this price to shift materially, you’d need either unexpected news (injury, withdrawal) or a credible reason to doubt Squire’s form or fitness closer to the 13 July 2026 date. At 86%, there’s little margin for surprise. A Guillen Meza upset would require him to outplay expectations significantly—the 14% side is pricing him as a clear underdog, so the bar for movement is high unless new information arrives.
This is a strongly favored favorite in a standard tour match. Prices this tight reflect confidence, not certainty. Watch for lineup changes or injury reports in the week before play.
FAQ
What does a 86% price mean?
It is the market-implied probability. A 86% YES price means traders collectively judge the event about 86% likely.
How does this market resolve?
This market refers to the tennis match between Henri Squire and Alvaro Guillen Meza in the Trieste, originally scheduled for July 6, 2026 at 4:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Henri Squire' if Henri Squire advances against Alvaro Guillen Meza. This market will resolve to 'Alvaro Guillen Meza'
Where can I trade it?
This market is listed on Polymarket. Prediction markets carry real financial risk and may not be available in every state.
Is this the same as sports betting?
Legally it’s event-contract trading on a regulated exchange, not a sportsbook bet — though the experience is similar. Read our prediction markets vs sports betting explainer.
Can I trade sports where betting is illegal?
Often yes, because these are federally regulated contracts — but sports is restricted in some states, so always check your state first.
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Kalshi has the broadest catalog; DraftKings and FanDuel are strong for sports-first traders. See our reviews.
What is a prediction market?
A prediction market lets you trade contracts on whether a real-world event will happen. The live price moves with supply and demand and reads as the implied probability. Read more →
How do the odds work?
Every price between 1¢ and 99¢ is the implied chance of YES. A contract settles at $1 if it resolves yes and $0 if it does not. Read more →
Prediction market contracts carry real financial risk and can resolve to zero. 18+.
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