Would you bet…
Swedish Open: Andrey Rublev vs Sebastian Baez Predictions
A YES share pays out if this happens and NO pays out if it doesn’t — so the 96% price is just the market’s implied chance of YES. How YES/NO contracts work →
- Platform
- Polymarket
- Volume
- $493,611 volume
- Resolves
- 24 Jul 2026
- Updated
- 3 months ago
96% has Rublev all but certain here, a modest edge that reflects his ranking advantage and recent form over Baez. The market has in recent trading, suggesting traders has held settled on this pricing rather than made a decisive call. With $494k in volume, liquidity is thin enough that late money could shift the line.
Rublev enters as the higher seed and carries a favorable head-to-head record. Baez, however, is a capable clay-court player and has shown the ability to trouble top-50 opponents on his day. The gap between 96% and 4% implies the market sees this as competitive but favors the favorite—a reasonable read on paper, though not overwhelming.
Watch for lineup confirmations and any injury news closer to 24 July 2026. If either player withdraws or the match stretches beyond the 7-day window without resolution, the contract voids. At current pricing, you’re essentially backing Rublev’s consistency against Baez’s upside. The market is pricing uncertainty fairly, which means the real move will come from information, not sentiment.
FAQ
What does a 96% price mean?
It is the market-implied probability. A 96% YES price means traders collectively judge the event about 96% likely.
How does this market resolve?
This market refers to the tennis match between Andrey Rublev and Sebastian Baez in the Swedish Open, originally scheduled for July 17, 2026 at 8:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Andrey Rublev' if Andrey Rublev advances against Sebastian Baez. This market will resolve to 'Sebastian Baez' if Se
Where can I trade it?
This market is listed on Polymarket. Prediction markets carry real financial risk and may not be available in every state.
Is this the same as sports betting?
Legally it’s event-contract trading on a regulated exchange, not a sportsbook bet — though the experience is similar. Read our prediction markets vs sports betting explainer.
Can I trade sports where betting is illegal?
Often yes, because these are federally regulated contracts — but sports is restricted in some states, so always check your state first.
Best platforms for sports?
Kalshi has the broadest catalog; DraftKings and FanDuel are strong for sports-first traders. See our reviews.
What is a prediction market?
A prediction market lets you trade contracts on whether a real-world event will happen. The live price moves with supply and demand and reads as the implied probability. Read more →
How do the odds work?
Every price between 1¢ and 99¢ is the implied chance of YES. A contract settles at $1 if it resolves yes and $0 if it does not. Read more →
Prediction market contracts carry real financial risk and can resolve to zero. 18+.
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